A importância das torcidas nas análises
Olá apostadores, eu sou o Gabriel e vou trazer informações e dicas para vocês do Portal Arena todas as semanas. Trabalho com o Danilo Pereira desde 2018 em diversos projetos que já desenvolvemos juntos com quem tive a oportunidade de aprender muito e me desenvolver. Além disso, sou engenheiro e trabalhei nesse segmento desde os 17 anos.
Realizei algumas especializações e minha carreira era estável quando resolvi me dedicar somente às apostas. Apesar de apostar desde 2012, nos últimos quatro anos eu me dedico exclusivamente a essa profissão, de onde vêm todos os meus ganhos atualmente.
Nesse tempo todo, já passei por diversas fases e trabalhei com pessoas competentes que me ensinaram muito. Assim, vou trazer no Portal um pouco dessa experiência e assuntos relevantes para nosso cenário. Hoje, vamos ver sobre a importância da torcida nas apostas.
A importância da torcida nas análises
Nesse primeiro artigo, gostaria de abordar a importância das torcidas e o fator “mando de campo” nas análises de um jogo de futebol. Para ilustrar e exemplificar minha teoria, vou usar como base os jogos do campeonato brasileiro desse ano.
Existem diversas técnicas de precificação e análise de um jogo de futebol. Dessa forma, cada apostador possui seus métodos e seus critérios. Mas, certamente, o fator “mando de campo” é algo que a grande maioria deve considerar em seus estudos.
Historicamente, o fator casa sempre foi muito importante para os times de futebol. Seja através de sua torcida apaixonada, um gramado diferente ou pela atmosfera criada em determinados estádios.
Atualmente, o mundo passa por um momento de pandemia. Por isso, os jogos são realizados sem público (ou em menor número) e isso pode afetar os resultados dentro de campo.
O retorno dos jogos na pandemia
Logo após o retorno do futebol durante a pandemia, a Alemanha foi o principal alvo de estudos e análises sobre o mando de campo. E foi muito evidente a queda de desempenho dos mandantes atuando sem torcida.
Na Bundesliga, o índice de vitórias dos mandantes caiu de 42 para 32%, por exemplo. Com certeza esse fator já é considerado nas Odds tanto pelos oddmakers quanto pelo próprio mercado, que já interpreta o fator casa de maneira diferente e ajuda a contribuir para a cotação de um jogo.
E no campeonato Brasileiro, será que a diferença foi tão grande? E Será que as Odds já estão completamente ajustadas em relação à falta de torcida? Vamos observar alguns fatos relevantes sobre isso a seguir.
Primeiro, é importante destacar que alguns fatores ainda influenciam diretamente no mando de campo.
Como por exemplo, gramados sintéticos ou gramados em péssimas condições.
Os estaduais estão começando e os gramados impróprios para o bom futebol são comuns no futebol brasileiro.
Além disso, é necessário considerar que o Brasil é um país de dimensões continentais e em muitas ocasiões as viagens são longas e cansativas.
Tudo isso contribui para uma linha de pensamento. Ou seja, não devemos desconsiderar o fator “mando de campo”, apenas devemos reconsiderar nosso peso sobre esse item dentro da nossa análise.
Vamos acompanhar os índices de vitórias dos mandantes na última década
2011 – 48%
2012 – 48%
2013 – 48%
2014 – 51%
2015 – 53%
2016 – 53%
2017 – 44%
2018 – 53%
2019 – 48%
No Campeonato Brasileiro de 2020 o índice é de 43% faltando uma rodada para o fim.
Fator Mando de Campo
Em 2017 o índice de vitórias do mandante também foi abaixo da média. Na última década, a média do índice de vitórias dos mandantes foi de 49,5% e isso mostra que 2020 está bem abaixo desse número. Em resumo, esses números mostram que a falta de torcida, sim, provavelmente, está diminuindo o aproveitamento dos mandantes.
No entanto, não é um fator único, visto que em 2017 também observamos um índice baixo. Em geral, como citado anteriormente, o mando de campo pode envolver outros fatores como o tipo de gramado e viagens.
A questão para nós, apostadores, é que os handicaps também estão se ajustando a essa nova realidade. Mesmo assim, é evidente essa queda de rendimento dos mandantes no Brasileirão.
Mesmo com os ajustes das Odds, ainda observamos que as cotações favorecem, e muito, os mandantes.
Dessa forma, desconsiderando fatores importantes como desfalques, momento da equipe, posição atual de tabela no momento e comparando apenas as odds de alguns confrontos da última rodada, podemos ver que sim, o fator casa ainda tem um peso considerável.
Fator casa
Internacional (2.90) x Flamengo (2.60) / Flamengo (1.59) x Internacional (4.03)
Vasco (2.75) x Corinthians (2.93) / Corinthians (1.85) x Vasco (4.30)
Sport (5.58) x Atlético-MG (1.65) / Atlético-MG (1.20) X Sport (13.0)
Athletico-PR (2.37) x Grêmio (3.35) / Grêmio (1.90) x Athletico-PR (4.35)
Santos (2.30) x Fluminense (3.20) / Fluminense (2.44) x Santos (3.11)
Análise dos dados
Em todos os exemplos, o fator campo foi um diferencial nas odds e em muitos casos também pode ter sido decisivo dentro de campo. Como falado anteriormente, os dados acima são apenas comparações isoladas de cotações, sem considerar os desfalques, por exemplo. Mesmo assim, fica a reflexão: algumas pessoas (inclui jornalistas, técnicos, apostadores) consideram que o peso do mando de campo é quase inexistente atualmente. E as odds ainda são bem menores para o mandante. Sendo assim, podemos ter oportunidades e odds desajustadas para os times visitantes durante esse período.
Dessa forma, é importante estar sempre atualizando nosso método e considerando fatores variáveis como esse.
Profissão apostador
O mundo todo está se adaptando as novas condições e muitas profissões também seguem esse caminho. Portanto, nossa caminhada não é diferente, devemos continuar sempre estudando e melhorando nossos métodos.
As amostras relacionadas não são grandes e também esperamos que em breve os torcedores possam voltar aos estádios. Mas enquanto isso não acontece no Brasil, vamos acompanhando os dados relevantes.
Os campeonatos estaduais podem trazer números interessantes a respeito do mando de campo. Afinal, muitos times menores apostam todas suas fichas em bons resultados dentro de casa. Durante os estaduais voltaremos com mais informações sobre esse assunto. Até mais.
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