Como Fazer Análises das Partidas de Futebol para as Apostas?
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Como eu analiso jogos nas apostas esportivas?
qua 09 dez/20

Como eu analiso jogos nas apostas esportivas?


Uma tarefa importante para quem está no mercado das apostas esportivas é saber fazer as análises das partidas de futebol. Pois, é através das análises que você consegue identificar erros e melhorias para sempre otimizar as suas estratégias e ter um bom retorno sobre o investimento.

Contudo, é comum ter dificuldade de fazer essa parte e eu sei que muitos apostadores não gostam de analisar as partidas.

Porém a análise é indispensável para quem quer ganhar dinheiro com futebol. Por isso, eu preparei algumas dicas para você começar a colocar em prática.

Como fazer as análises das partidas de futebol

Em primeiro lugar, é necessário decidir os critérios que devem ser levados em consideração e que são verdadeiramente importantes para serem trabalhados.

Dentro de uma partida, há inúmeros itens que podem ser observados.

Os quais podem ou não ser critérios para analisar. Como, por exemplo:

  • Número de escanteios;
  • Posse de bola;
  • Chutes ao gol.

Existe um sistema de fairlines, que resumidamente é um sistema de precificação.

Neste sistema é possível verificar alguns critérios, como força, tática, técnica, desfalques das equipes, must win, shape, dentre outros.  

No geral, a maior parte das análises são subjetivas. Portanto, o que um apostador analisa em uma partida,  pode ser diferente do que você analisará.

Há vários vieses de análise baseado em números. Além disso, há outro viés baseado no shape, como a forma que a equipe joga e como ela se comporta em campo. Por fim, há também análises baseadas em outros dados.

Então há diversas opções do que poderá ser levando ou não em conta nos critérios adotados na análise de cada pessoa.  

Independente do critério e dos dados usados para sua análise, você precisa chegar em um método. E para  encontrar um método, você precisará testar seus critérios, verificando se eles fazem ou não sentido e se estão sendo bem direcionados para o jogo. 

Como verificar se os critérios que utilizo estão adequados? 

Para validar seus critérios, você precisa verificar se o que analisou está condizente com a partida. Um exemplo disso é que se você está utilizando os chutes a gol como dado a ser analisado, você pode concluir que o Flamengo, por exemplo, seja favorito para vencer a partida quando observa que a quantidade de chutes a gol esperada para um determinado jogo está relativamente alta.   

Identificar valor na partida  

A segunda etapa é identificar se o preço oferecido pelas casas de apostas tem valor.

A princípio, é necessário verificar se a cotação oferecida está ou não correta.

Imagine que a sua análise apontou um valor justo de 2,20 para um jogo do Corinthians, por exemplo. Porém, na casa de aposta tem a odd de 2,50.

Portanto, com isso, podemos constatar que a probabilidade que você acha que o Corinthians tem de ganhar o jogo é diferente da probabilidade apontada pela casa de apostas.

Com isso, você tem 0,30 de diferente entre o valor que você constatou e o valor oferecido. Logo, você tem +EV. Ou seja, você tem uma aposta de valor na sua mão.

Saber se o preço do evento analisado está ou não desajustado é um desafio de muito valor para os apostadores. E você também deve comprar as odds com o preço que você encontrou. 

Lembrando que é importante usar o método de +EV e nunca fazer as apostas na base do achismo. Pois trabalhando sem um método inteligente, dificilmente você será um apostador lucrativo. 

Quando realizar a aposta? 

  

A terceira etapa é definir o melhor momento para colocar sua aposta. É necessário pegar o preço no auge para bater a linha de fecho, as close odds, com bastante qualidade. 

  A linha de fecho é o pico de maior valor que a odd alcançou. Em outras palavras, se você acompanhar o mercado, será possível identificar estes momentos de alta.

Consequentemente, fazendo as apostas nesses momentos, estará pegando um valor +EV de acordo com a sua precificação. Desta forma, maximizando seus ganhos. 

  Se quiser saber mais sobre o momento de colocar sua aposta, tempos conteúdos sobre Early bet, Today bet e Live bet que serão muito úteis para esta etapa.   

As etapas para o sucesso nas apostas

Sob o mesmo ponto de vista, nestas três etapas, mostro um pouco sobre precificação, gestão de banca e mindset. E essas etapas são muito importantes para o sucesso dentro do mundo das apostas esportivas. 

Além de ser importante, cada uma tem a sua devida relevância dentro da análise da partida.   

Dessa forma, é fundamental que você encontre qual é a melhor maneira de definir seus critérios e métodos. De forma que seja mais adequado para você.

Além disso, é indispensável que seja feita a análise corretamente, independente de qual forma ela será feita. Sempre pensando no longo prazo. 

Quer continuar aprendendo mais sobre como ter sucesso nas apostas esportivas?

Então, faça como os 3% dos apostadores lucrativos e comece a se especializar agora mesmo.

Por isso, faça parte do meu grupo exclusivo para receber conteúdos de apostas esportivas profissionais.

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