Nem tudo é o que parece no mundo das cotações
Vamos falar um pouco sobre duas picks de semana passada. Antes de mais nada, cabe uma breve contextualização. Irei postar um green, com a maior odd do ano e um red, com uma precificação boa, antes da luta, com um favoritismo razoável. Porém, luta é luta, e Miesha “colou as placas”, resolveu ser outra llutadora.
Vamos às cotações:
- Shayilan Nuerdanbieke x Sean Soriano (300): Green
- Ketlen Vieira x Miesha Tate (846): Red
Picks:
- Card Principal: Shayilan Nuerdanbieke x Sean Soriano
- Aposta: : Shayilan Nuerdanbieke
- Odds: @3.300
- Categoria: Peso-galo
- Favoritismo: 60% (1.67)
Sean Soriano
Segunda luta do card preliminar. Duelo de estilos. Sean Soriano é um trocador experiente, já passou pelo UFC em 2014, perdeu 3 seguidas retornando em 2021 contra Christos Giagos, veterano do UFC, mas com 9 derrotas na carreira. Foi finalizado no 2R. O grappling: defesa de quedas e o jiu-jitsu, é o seu Calcanhar de Aquiles. Seu queixo não é confiável apesar de ter na trocação sua principal arma. Perde rendimento com o passar dos rounds. Sente bastante o 3R se houver muita troca de nível: trocação e grappling.
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke
É basicamente um grappler, é ótimo nas entradas de quedas, seja no meio do octógono, seja na grade. Seu forte é o ground and Pound. Na trocação deixa um pouco a desejar, tem pouco volume, mas explode bem e tem mãos pesadas. Seu rendimento costuma cair ao final dos rounds, mas recupera bem a cada novo recomeço.
Estratégia
São estilos complementares, Sean Soriano vai buscar a luta, provavelmente irá sucumbir as quedas do atleta chinês. Deverá perder por pontos ou TKO.
- Card Principal: Ketlen Vieira x Miesha Tate
- Aposta: Miesha Tate
- Odds: @1.847
- Categoria: Peso-galo
- Favoritismo: 60% (1.67)
Pick:
Ketlen
Main event. Duelo de grapplers. Ketlen é uma atleta que possui um boxe de pontuação voltado para o contragolpe. Mas, o seu ponto forte é o grappling, a luta agarrada, mais voltada para os pontos. Tem bom gás para 3 rounds. Possui mais envergadura e altura que Miesha Tate.
Miesha
Miesha, simplesmente é uma veterana de 34 anos (muito nova), ficou 5 anos afastada (não teve desgaste de luta nesse tempo) e voltou na melhor forma de sua vida, física e tecnicamente. É uma ex campeã do UFC, seu carro chefe é o grappling, seja na grade ou no meio do octógono Miesha realiza muito boas projeções de quedas e seu jiu-jitsu é muito afiado. Sua parte em pé é o kick, mas seu boxe é muito eficiente, pois utiliza muito bem os jabs e a combinação de retos; jab e direto, esses golpes vazarão e muito a guarda da brasileira.
Estratégia
Será uma luta onde a ketlen poderá se impor no 1R e 2R, por conta de seu tamanho e força, no entanto, numa luta de 5 rounds, o boxe da Miesha e as insistentes entradas de quedas, devem minar a resistência física da brasileira e fazer a diferença para ex campeã. Vitória por pontos ou finalização, depois do 3R.
Infelizmente, Miesha não foi Miesha. Esqueceu o grappling e arriscou tudo numa are-a que nunca dominou, a trocação, com uma atleta (como havia dito) maior e mais envergadura. Estou re-vol-ta-do até agora.
CONTINUE APRENDENDO SOBRE APOSTAS ESPORTIVAS
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