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Como apostar no UFC?
sáb 29 jan/22

Como apostar no UFC?


Apostar no UFC hoje tem se tornado cada vez mais popular. O primeiro passo para se apostar no UFC é criar uma conta em uma casa de apostas que possua o mercado. Atualmente acredito que todas as casas de apostas oferecem a opção de se apostar no UFC, mas eu particularmente utilizo e indico a Pinnacle.

 Quais são as principais regras do UFC?

O UFC é derivado do antigo “Vale-Tudo” mas possui maiores proibições visando a integridade dos atletas. São proibidos:

  • Cabeçada
  • Dedos nos olhos 
  • Morder ou cuspir 
  • Dedos ou a mão cobrindo as narinas ou a boca
  • Golpear a espinha dorsal ou a nuca
  • Golpear a garganta
  • Golpear com o cotovelo de cima para baixo
  • Golpear a virilha
  • Dar joelhada ou chute em um oponente que tiver 3 ou mais apoios no chão (joelho, mãos, pés)
  • Segurar na grade

Socos e cotoveladas são permitidos independente da posição em que o oponente estiver, respeitando apenas os locais proibidos.

 O que são os props nas lutas do UFC?

Props são as apostas em mercados que não sejam o MoneyLine (Vitória). Temos hoje uma variedade de prop bets:

  • Over/under rounds

O importante nesse mercado é perceber que diferente de outros esportes, os over e under 1.5, 2.5 rounds são literalmente 1 round e meio, e 2 rounds e meio, respectivamente. Ou seja: Se apostarmos em um over 1.5 rounds, teremos green se a luta passar da metade do segundo round. Se apostarmos em under 2.5 rounds, teremos green se a luta acabar antes da metade do terceiro round, independente de quem vença.

  • Método de vitória

Nesse mercado precisamos acertar o vencedor e o método em que ele vencerá:

  1. Lutador A vence por decisão – Teremos green se o lutador A vencer na decisão dos juízes. Se ele nocautear ou finalizar, perdemos a aposta mesmo acertando o vencedor
  2. Lutador A vence “inside the distance”? Sim – Teremos green se o lutador A vencer tanto por nocaute quanto finalização
  3. Lutador A vence por nocaute? Sim – Teremos green apenas se o lutador A nocautear
  4. Lutador A vence por finalização? Sim – Teremos green apenas se o lutador A finalizar seu oponente
  5. Lutador A vence “inside the distance”/nocaute/finalização? Não – São mercados menos explorados, mas podem ser bem lucrativos. Na última luta de Khamzat Chimaev, tínhamos odds acima de 2.00 para ele não vencer por nocaute. Ele finalizou e essa aposta seria green. 
  • “A luta vai para a decisão dos juízes”? Sim/Não

Nesse tipo de aposta, independente do resultado precisamos apenas acertar se a luta vai ou não para a decisão dos juízes.

  • “A luta começa no round x”?

É um mercado parecido com o over/under rounds, mas conta o round inteiro. Por exemplo: “A luta começa no round 3?” Sim – Teríamos green se o round 3 começar, ou seja, se ninguém for nocauteado ou finalizado até o fim do round 2

  • Round em que o lutador vencerá

O mercado mais arriscado, mas também o que temos maiores odds. Precisamos acertar o round em que determinado lutador vencerá. Utilizei duas vezes em 2021, com um green e um red. 

O green veio na luta do brasileiro Alex “Poatan”, fiz uma aposta para ele vencer no round 2, e o nocaute veio exatamente neste round. As odds estavam em incríveis 6.00. 

É possível criar bilhetes para aumentar a odd no UFC?

Como no futebol ou em qualquer outro esporte, duplas são mais arriscadas do que uma aposta simples. 

Hoje eu tenho duas bancas:

  • Na primeira, faço apenas apostas SIMPLES, é minha banca principal
  • Na segunda, escolho algumas lutas por evento e faço bilhetes. Mas é uma banca mais recreativa, onde todos os anos retiro o lucro e recomeço a brincadeira com o valor inicial fixo. Posso dizer que nos dois anos que faço isso obtive um bom lucro, mas não pretendo transformar isso em um investimento pesado

Para ilustrar melhor o risco dos bilhetes vamos a um exemplo: 

  • 3 apostas duplas, totalizando 6 lutas
  • Das 6 lutas, acertamos 3
  • Se essas 3 lutas certas estiverem em 3 bilhetes diferentes, perdemos TODAS AS 3 APOSTAS.

Lembrem-se que odds baixas não significam green certo, ainda mais no UFC. Amanda Nunes tinha odds de 1.07 em sua última luta e perdeu.

Método da vitória pode ser um risco ou benefício 

O método de vitória é uma alternativa para lutas com super favoritos, pois podemos encontrar odds altas mesmo para lutadores claramente superiores ao adversário. Como toda aposta, tem seus riscos e benefícios. Hoje eu realizo poucas apostas nesse mercado, e a metodologia é a mesma: precificação e encontrar valor. Um ótimo exemplo está no último evento de 2021, na luta entre Stephen Thompson e Belal Muhammad. Na semana do evento tínhamos odds de 1.47 para Stephen Thompson e 2.80 para Belal Muhammad, na minha precificação, algo justo. Porém, me chamou a atenção as odds de 4.50 para Muhammad vencer por decisão, pois Stephen Thompson nunca foi finalizado e Belal Muhammad venceu a maioria de suas lutas por decisão. Não fazia sentido 2.80 no ML e 4.50 em uma vitória por decisão para um lutador que venceu praticamente todas as suas lutas apenas por decisão. Então devemos sim nos atentar no método de vitória, mas respeitando nossa precificação.

 Onde analisa o card dos lutadores (as)

O site oficial do UFC possui todos os dados, com gráficos e números mas além dele utilizo outros dois:

  • O UFC Stats possui dados de todas as lutas do UFC. Conseguimos ver o aproveitamento em quedas, em golpes, e muito mais. Abaixo temos os stats dos lutadores que fazem a luta principal no dia 15/01:

 

  • O Sherdog é útil para vermos o cartel dos lutadores, interessante para ver quais foram seus adversários e como se saíram antes do UFC. Importante site para analisar atletas estreantes. Abaixo vemos a página sobre Giga Chikadze, favorito para o evento principal do dia 15/01:

Aposta futura no UFC tem vantagem nas Odds? 

Uma vantagem do MMA (principalmente o UFC) em relação aos outros esportes é que por ser um esporte individual e onde cada lutador demora para fazer sua próxima luta, podemos fazer apostas futuras sem medo de problema de escalação, mudança de forma, entre outros, como é no futebol, basquete, etc. 

Atualmente faço apostas futuras para todos os eventos. Se encontrei valor, estou colocando meu dinheiro. Hoje tenho apostas para eventos que vão acontecer apenas em fevereiro. O que me motivou a isso?

Antigamente, fazia apostas apenas na semana do evento, com isso via valor em 3 ou 4 apostas. Hoje, fazendo apostas futuras, consigo melhores odds e já fiz mais de 15 apostas em um mesmo evento. Um bom exemplo é a luta entre Kai Kara France e Cody Garbrandt no penúltimo evento de 2021: Apostei na vitória de Kai Kara France no dia 21 de Novembro, a 2.48. No dia 12 de dezembro, dia do evento, sua odd fechou em 2.19. Então sim, aconselho que precifiquem e façam apostas em eventos futuros.

QUAIS MÉTODOS UM APOSTADOR PRECISA ESTUDAR? 

Esse é um assunto que eu falo muito com meus seguidores, afinal é a base para o investimento esportivo. Por isso, eu separei aqui abaixo alguns conteúdos para você começar a estudar sobre métodos para as apostas esportivas. 

Faça como os 3% dos apostadores lucrativos e comece a se especializar agora mesmo. Por isso, faça parte do meu grupo exclusivo para receber conteúdos de apostas esportivas profissionais. 

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