Técnicas para Evitar Red nas Apostas Esportivas
O assunto dessa matéria é um dos mais pedidos pelos meus seguidores e além disso, esse tema também é um dos principais dentro do meu curso Aposta de Valor. Você vai aprender com exemplos práticos algumas maneiras de lidar e até evitar red nas apostas esportivas. O objetivo principal é te ensinar a como cobrir uma aposta ou pelo menos evitar o prejuízo.
Para começar a te explicar, vou usar um caso real de um jogo entre Cruzeiro e Fluminense. Se no dia desse jogo você fez a sua aposta e foi dormir, você simplesmente perdeu a oportunidade de cobrir a aposta e de sair sem prejuízo. Você tem que saber que existem algumas situações as quais é possível controlar o jogo. Por isso, é sua obrigação fazer isso, caso você queira ser um profissional das apostas esportivas. Apostadores profissionais que ganham dinheiro com as apostas não podem apenas fazer a aposta e esperar pra saber o resultado. É necessário ter ações profissionais e especiais. E cuidar da sua aposta está entre essas ações.
Como evitar red nas apostas esportivas?
Vamos continuar ainda no exemplo desse jogo que eu citei no início para você entender o que poderia ter feito para não sair com red. Imagine que para esse jogo você fez a seguinte aposta: Cruzeiro -0.75, uma odd de 2 e apostou R$100. Isso significa que se o Cruzeiro ganhar por um gol de diferença, você vai ganhar metade da aposta. Ou seja, para você ganhar a aposta inteira, seria preciso ganhar por 2 ou mais gols. Para você entender melhor essa lógica, eu te convido a ver o vídeo sobre como trabalhar com Handicaps Asiáticos.
Voltando ao exemplo, nesse jogo o Cruzeiro começo o jogo perdendo por 1 x 0. Nesse momento, não tinha nada pra fazer, pois se fizesse uma aposta ali naquele momento, você não cobriria nada. Na sequência, o Cruzeiro conseguiu empatar em 1 x 1. Seguindo o jogo, o Cruzeiro faz 2×1.
Como entender o meio green nas apostas
O meio green significa que você está apenas com metade do lucro, visto que o Cruzeiro está com apenas um gol de diferença. Ou seja, seu lucro é de R$50. Como acontece com a maioria dos times brasileiros, o Cruzeiro se acomodou com o resultado, tinha a chance de fazer mais gols e não fez. Em alguns momentos, eu pensei que o Fluminense ia fazer mais gols.
A primeira situação que precisa ser analisada nesse momento é os R$100 que você investiu estão retornando R$ 50. E por qual motivo você deveria correr o risco de perder o stake inteiro para ganhar metade se o jogo está tão perigoso e você ainda tem a oportunidade de cobrir esse provável lost?
Quando isso acontece, é necessário fazer o seguinte exercício: Você tem uma entrada de -0.75, ou seja, o Cruzeiro está muito favorito no jogo e a sua entrada não reflete a realidade da partida. Você tem uma linha agressiva na mão, mas você tem o cenário contrário. Por isso, você tem a obrigação como punter de cuidar da tua aposta neste exato momento. E foi isso que eu fiz nesse jogo.
O que fazer para ganhar a aposta?
Enquanto o jogo está acontecendo, você pode se mexer e correr atrás de um resultado melhor. Você tem duas ações para reverter essa situação e vou começar explicando o que eu fiz exatamente no dia desse jogo.
Apostar no over
O jogo está 2 a 1, saíram 3 gols e o jogo está no final, logo a próxima linha é over 3,5. Imagine que está faltando 5 minutos para acabar o jogo e a linha de over está muito alta naquele momento. A linha de over era em torno de 5.
Apostar no empate
A outra opção é você cobrir o empate, que em termos técnicos é chamado de draw. O empate sempre vai pagar mais que o over, já que o empate é bem mais difícil de acontecer, pois só sai empate com mais 1 gol do Fluminense. Naquele momento, o empate pagava 8, em média. Quais são as medidas aqui? Você quer fechar seu lucro? Entregar o lucro e dizer que não quer prejuízos? Ou você quer garantir um pouco do lucro e estar mais seguro? Foi isso que eu fiz.
Dos R$50 de lucro que eu tinha até aquele momento, eu peguei R$10 para colocar em outra aposta. Se você pegar R$ 10 deste R$ 50 e apostar neste over o que vai acontecer o seguinte: se não sair gol e o jogo terminar Cruzeiro 2 a 1, você deixaria de ganhar R$50 para ganhar R$40, porque você pegou R$ 10 e empurrou numa aposta que foi perdida, isso poderia acontecer tranquilamente, pois faz parte do negócio.
O que de fato aconteceu neste cenário aqui foi que você perdeu a sua aposta inicial de R$ 100. Então esse R$ 100 foram perdidos porque o jogo terminou 2 a 2, só que você acertou over 3.5. Nesse caso, você teve uma odd de 5. Ou seja, você ganhou R$ 50, com um resultado final de 50 negativos.
Nessa cobertura você perdeu R$ 50, você evitou perder uma stake inteira para perder meia stake. Essa é uma cobertura, a segunda cobertura é o que eu faço nesse caso, é uma cobertura dupla onde eu coloco uma parte no over e a outra parte no draw.
Como funciona a cobertura dupla nas apostas?
Nessa cobertura dupla, vamos fazer o seguinte. Desses R$ 50, vou colocar R$ 10 no over e R$ 10 no Draw. Porém, se terminar em empate, eu teria o seguinte: R$ 10 x 8 de lucro, ou seja, tenho R$ 80. Retirando os R$ 10, ficam R$ 70 e eu tenho R$ 10 x 5 que são R$ 50, tirando R$ 10 dá R$ 40. Então eu tenho mais lucro do que a minha stake inicial.
Percebeu a minha estratégia? Eu saí de uma situação a qual eu poderia ter tomado uma red muito grande, por causa do empate. Mas eu comecei a usar minhas técnicas, pegando parte do lucro e dividi em mais algumas apostas. No final do jogo, eu estava com lucro, pois bati 2 odds cobrindo.
De forma geral, quando eu cubro um over, eu tenho a chance de ter o lucro mesmo com o gol do Cruzeiro. Ou seja, se o Cruzeiro marca o 3 x 1, eu tenho o green inicial na minha primeira aposta. Eeu tenho green também no over e eu só teria um red no empate.
E este red não é problema nenhum, pois de R$ 50 eu usei R$ 10, me bateu o over. E já me gerou bastante lucro na segunda aposta e na última.
O que eu quero mostrar pra você é que sempre podemos encontrar uma saída para cobrir uma aposta de um lado ou de outro. Não é possível cobrir tudo e o tempo todo, mas é você quem tem que analisar o cenário e decidir aonde atacar.
Veja mais conteúdos lá no meu canal do Youtube.
E se você quiser um conteúdo ainda mais aprofundado, inscreva-se na minha lista VIP para receber conteúdos de apostas profissionais exclusivos.
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