O que é Underdog e como fazer a precificação?
Você sabe o que significa Underdog nas apostas esportivas? Basicamente, o underdog é o time que não é o favorito dentro de uma partida de futebol, ou seja, é aquela equipe que possui baixa expectativa de vitória naquele jogo. Simples, né?
Mas você sabe como fazer a precificação do underdog? Esse assunto já gerou dúvidas e discussões entre meus alunos do curso Aposta de Valor, e por isso eu resolvi trazer um esclarecimento para você que acompanha meu conteúdo.
Para você que trabalha com as apostas esportivas, é importante ter a visão mais racional sobre como escolher um time para fazer as apostas. Nesse artigo, você vai entender que nem sempre o time favorito tem mais valor para as apostas.
Como precificar: mandante x visitante
Esse tema começou com o seguinte questionamento: Eu tenho muita dificuldade para fazer a minha fairline, pois normalmente eu acabo percebendo muito valor para o time que joga fora de casa, ou seja, o underdog.
É normal sim o aluno ou o apostador ter esse tipo de dificuldade, porque a tendência é que a gente olhe para os handicaps positivos com mais atenção. Isso acontecia comigo também no começo.
Não é que seja errado fazer isso, porém, exige um pouco mais de cuidado. Muitas vezes, o apostador acaba caindo na pegadinha do +0.75, por exemplo. Essa linha é muito difícil de ser batida. E foi uma das linhas que mais me deu prejuízo durante todos esses anos que eu trabalho como apostador.
Como dar peso para as equipes
Na hora de fazer uma precificação, você vai analisar o desempenho, a força, a técnica das equipes, entre outros requisitos, certo? Independente se você faz essa análise de cabeça, no sistema ou simplesmente anotando em um caderno.
E na hora de analisar esses requisitos, você não pode colocar o mesmo peso para a equipe visitante. Parece confuso? Não se preocupe que eu vou dar um exemplo pra facilitar esse entendimento.
Quando o Corinthians está jogando dentro de casa, é um time forte taticamente e joga de maneira mais organizada e melhor. Contudo, eu não posso ter essa mesma visão para quando o Corinthians estiver jogando fora de casa.
Imagine que você coloque 8% de técnica para o Corinthians jogar em casa. Essa porcentagem não pode ser a mesma para quando a equipe estiver fora. E levando em consideração todos os critérios, você vai perceber que não tem como você ter uma porcentagem igual ou maior que 8 para uma equipe underdog.
Conforme você vai ajustando essa conta para fazer a precificação, você vai ver que a tendência é que as apostas dos times underdogs diminuam um pouco. Justamente pelo fato de que o ajuste é feito de acordo com o desempenho que a equipe vai ter fora de casa.
O que devo levar em consideração?
Se você começou a pouco tempo nas apostas ou ainda não fez nenhuma especialização nessa área, você pode estar sem entender o que eu acabei de explicar, mas aos poucos essas coisas vão fazer mais sentido na sua cabeça.
Mas o que você precisa saber desde já é que todos os apostadores fazem a sua precificação antes de fazer as suas apostas, mesmo que seja na mente.
Durante o meu curso eu foco bastante nesse assunto e falo diversas vezes que você não pode considerar os mesmos pesos para uma equipe que joga em casa e uma equipe que joga fora.
Temos que avaliar sempre os dois lados, colocar no papel e entender as vantagens que nos são oferecidas no momento de investir. Conforme você for fazendo as suas análises, vai perceber que faz mais sentido diminuir a probabilidade para os times underdogs e aos poucos você vai conseguir entender melhor sobre esses ajustes.
Apostador iniciante? Comece a estudar agora
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百家樂是賭場中最古老且最受歡迎的博奕遊戲，無論是實體還是線上娛樂城都有其踪影。其簡單的規則和公平的遊戲機制吸引了大量玩家。不只如此，線上百家樂近年來更是受到玩家的喜愛，其優勢甚至超越了知名的實體賭場如澳門和拉斯維加斯。
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百家樂(baccarat)是一款起源於義大利的撲克牌遊戲，其名稱在英文中是「零」的意思。從十五世紀開始在法國流行，到了十九世紀，這款遊戲在英國和法國都非常受歡迎。現今百家樂已成為全球各大賭場和娛樂城中的熱門遊戲。(來源: wiki百家樂 )
百家樂主要是玩家押注莊家或閒家勝出的遊戲。參與的人數沒有限制，不只坐在賭桌的玩家，旁邊站立的人也可以下注。
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Etapele redactarii unei lucrari de licen?a
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Dupa ce ai ales teza, urmatorul pas este sa i?i planifici lucrarea ?i sa incepi cercetarea. Elaboreaza o structura coerenta pentru lucrare, astfel incat sa i?i organizezi ideile in mod logic ?i sa te asiguri ca acoperi toate aspectele relevante ale subiectului.
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Redactarea unei lucrari de licen?a poate fi o provocare, dar cu o planificare riguroasa ?i abordarea corecta, po?i ob?ine rezultate remarcabile. Asigura-te ca alegi o teza relevanta ?i interesanta, planifica-?i lucrarea ?i cerceteaza in profunzime, apoi scrie cu aten?ie ?i coeren?a. Nu uita sa revizuie?ti ?i sa corectezi lucrarea inainte de a o finaliza ?i, cel mai important, sa fii mandru de realizarea ta. Prin urmare, abordeaza redactarea lucrarii de licen?a cu incredere ?i determinare, ?i vei reu?i sa ob?ii rezultate de succes in studiile tale universitare.
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