O que é Underdog Dentro das Apostas de Futebol?
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O que é Underdog e como fazer a precificação?
qua 03 jun/20

O que é Underdog e como fazer a precificação?


Você sabe o que significa Underdog nas apostas esportivas? Basicamente, o underdog é o time que não é o favorito dentro de uma partida de futebol, ou seja, é aquela equipe que possui baixa expectativa de vitória naquele jogo. Simples, né? 

Mas você sabe como fazer a precificação do underdog? Esse assunto já gerou dúvidas e discussões entre meus alunos do curso Aposta de Valor, e por isso eu resolvi trazer um esclarecimento para você que acompanha meu conteúdo.  

Para você que trabalha com as apostas esportivas, é importante ter a visão mais racional sobre como escolher um time para fazer as apostas. Nesse artigo, você vai entender que nem sempre o time favorito tem mais valor para as apostas.  

Como precificar: mandante x visitante 

Esse tema começou com o seguinte questionamento: Eu tenho muita dificuldade para fazer a minha fairline, pois normalmente eu acabo percebendo muito valor para o time que joga fora de casa, ou seja, o underdog. 

É normal sim o aluno ou o apostador ter esse tipo de dificuldade, porque a tendência é que a gente olhe para os handicaps positivos com mais atenção. Isso acontecia comigo também no começo.  

Não é que seja errado fazer isso, porém, exige um pouco mais de cuidado. Muitas vezes, o apostador acaba caindo na pegadinha do +0.75, por exemplo. Essa linha é muito difícil de ser batida. E foi uma das linhas que mais me deu prejuízo durante todos esses anos que eu trabalho como apostador.  

Como dar peso para as equipes 

Na hora de fazer uma precificação, você vai analisar o desempenho, a força, a técnica das equipes, entre outros requisitos, certo? Independente se você faz essa análise de cabeça, no sistema ou simplesmente anotando em um caderno.  

E na hora de analisar esses requisitos, você não pode colocar o mesmo peso para a equipe visitante.  Parece confuso? Não se preocupe que eu vou dar um exemplo pra facilitar esse entendimento.  

Quando o Corinthians está jogando dentro de casa, é um time forte taticamente e joga de maneira mais organizada e melhor. Contudo, eu não posso ter essa mesma visão para quando o Corinthians estiver jogando fora de casa.  

Imagine que você coloque 8% de técnica para o Corinthians jogar em casa. Essa porcentagem não pode ser a mesma para quando a equipe estiver fora. E levando em consideração todos os critérios, você vai perceber que não tem como você ter uma porcentagem igual ou maior que 8 para uma equipe underdog 

Conforme você vai ajustando essa conta para fazer a precificação, você vai ver que a tendência é que as apostas dos times underdogs diminuam um pouco. Justamente pelo fato de que o ajuste é feito de acordo com o desempenho que a equipe vai ter fora de casa. 

O que devo levar em consideração? 

Se você começou a pouco tempo nas apostas ou ainda não fez nenhuma especialização nessa área, você pode estar sem entender o que eu acabei de explicar, mas aos poucos essas coisas vão fazer mais sentido na sua cabeça.  

Mas o que você precisa saber desde já é que todos os apostadores fazem a sua precificação antes de fazer as suas apostas, mesmo que seja na mente.  

Durante o meu curso eu foco bastante nesse assunto e falo diversas vezes que você não pode considerar os mesmos pesos para uma equipe que joga em casa e uma equipe que joga fora.  

Temos que avaliar sempre os dois lados, colocar no papel e entender as vantagens que nos são oferecidas no momento de investir. Conforme você for fazendo as suas análises, vai perceber que faz mais sentido diminuir a probabilidade para os times underdogs e aos poucos você vai conseguir entender melhor sobre esses ajustes.  

Apostador iniciante? Comece a estudar agora

Inscreva-se na minha lista VIP para receber conteúdos de apostas profissionais exclusivos. 

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