Evitar o Red é Ganhar um Green nas Apostas?
Se você acompanha meus conteúdos há algum tempo, já deve ter percebido que eu falo bastante sobre o longo prazo. E você sabia que no final de uma temporada, o apostador que perde menos dinheiro durante o período é o que consegue ser mais lucrativo? Eu sei que isso pode parecer muito óbvio, mas infelizmente alguns apostadores ainda não perceberam isso.
Evitar um red é passar a ganhar um green?
Vamos imaginar a linha do tempo de setembro, onde há apostas ganhas e perdidas, com uma bad run, inclusive. Nisso temos um cenário de um mês regular, que ficou praticamente no zero a zero. Neste cenário, imaginamos que o apostador tanto nas apostas ganhas, quanto nas apostas perdidas foram analisadas e se encontrou o +EV.
Imagine se neste mesmo mês, o apostador tivesse evitado 3 reds. A situação seria bem diferente. Isso pode nos mostrar um dos grandes erros dos apostadores que é apostar em muita coisa, achando que deve apostar em todos os jogos. Inclusive, ele acaba acreditando que deve apostar até onde ele não consegue selecionar aquilo que não tem valor. Neste caso, ele está atirando para todos os lados, aumentando e muito a chance de um red.
Um exemplo que ocorreu comigo foi na Premier League, onde eu iria apostar no Manchester United contra o Cristal Palace. Neste caso, eu deixei para apostar no live e depois durante o jogo optei por não apostar. No final, o Cristal Palace venceu a partida e eu acabei evitando um red.
Muitos apostaram no Manchester United no pré game, muitos não tiveram paciência de esperar para apostar no live ou estavam muito confiantes na vitória do Manchester United.
Usando o exemplo onde eu evitei o red no jogo do Manchester United e supondo que eu repeti esta situação mais duas vezes no mês, logo, num período onde estava regular, passaria a poder ser considerado até como bom.
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Quando você tira uma aposta perdida da sua banca, não significa apenas que você tirou uma unidade de prejuízo. Além de evitar a perda de uma unidade, você ganhou mais consciência que isso poderá ocorrer mais vezes e ganhou força mental para ficar mais atento sobre este tipo de situação. Agora eu me pergunto: como vou confiar novamente no Manchester United com um handicap tão agressivo, numa partida na qual eu imaginei que era tão benéfica e que não aconteceu da forma que eu esperava?
O pensamento de você evitar um red, levar o jogo para a live, confirmar melhor suas expectativas, não só melhora muito sua curva do mês, como também melhora seu psicológico. Evitar um red, poderá aumentar uma sequência positiva, melhorando seu mindset.
Quando fazer a aposta?
Um dos problemas de muitos dos apostadores é achar que precisa colocar uma aposta. Às vezes eles nem encontram nada de valor, mas acreditam que devem fazer uma aposta. Quando você evita isso, você tira um red do seu mês e tudo melhora. Melhora seu desempenho, melhora seus números e melhora sua forma mental.
Por mais simples que pareça, o principal ponto que venho destacar é que evitar um red é muito importante. Assim, quando não tiver nada para fazer, não faça nada. Quando você insiste em apostar mesmo sem ter valor em nada e acaba perdendo, significa uma unidade a menos no seu mês.
Quando você deixa de apostar num jogo e vê que no final você evitou um red, você conclui que acabou indo bem neste jogo pois evitou o prejuízo. Ou seja, você pulou o red. Isso é moralmente bom para você que deixou de perder e viu várias outras pessoas que apostaram perdendo.
Quando você estiver indeciso entre apostar ou não no jogo, pense nisso: às vezes evitar um red será muito bom para sua banca e será ótimo para sua moral e para seu psicológico.
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89 Comentários
E aí, Danilo me fale uma banca confiável
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