Conheça Técnicas para Apostas Pré-Live
Conheça técnicas de apostas pré-live em futebol
Para ser um vencedor nas apostas esportivas é necessário trabalhar duro e, principalmente, estar sempre disposto a aprender. O foco de todo apostador deve ser desenvolver estratégias que visem os ganhos constantes no longo prazo. Afinal, você não quer ter que depender de ganhos esporádicos, certo? É preciso mais do que sorte para sobreviver no meio das apostas. Pensando nisso, separamos alguns pilares que podem te ajudar a desenvolver técnicas e estratégias com foco nos ganhos em longo prazo realizando apostas pré-live.
Gestão de banca
Independente de estarmos falando sobre apostas pré-live ou ao vivo, um dos pilares para sustentar qualquer estratégia dentro das apostas esportivas é a gestão de banca. Isso é básico para qualquer apostador. É preciso dominar com muita perfeição uma gestão de banca para pensar em ser lucrativo no longo prazo. Sem gestão e disciplina, nenhuma estratégia sobrevive ao tempo, por melhor que ela seja.
Apostas de valor
Outro pilar inegociável para qualquer estratégia com foco no longo prazo, e aqui incluímos as estratégias envolvendo apostas pré-live, é sempre procurar fazer com valor esperado positivo. Sem isso, dificilmente existirá êxito constante. É preciso se desprender de estratégias que te fazem perder dinheiro no longo prazo, como as múltiplas, para evoluir como apostador.
Odds fortes
Um dos grandes focos de quem atua com apostas pré-live está em sempre buscar realizar apostas em odds fortes. O longo prazo não costuma perdoar quem não utiliza odds fortes, principalmente no pré-live, pois as big odds nessa maneira de trabalhar são mais raras. Isso se explica porque a relação entre taxa de acerto e odd média é muito cruel. Se não optar por escolher utilizar uma média de odds fortes (entre 1.80 e 2.20) nas suas apostas, o apostador estará mais longe de vencer no longo prazo.
Especialização
Além de tudo isso que explicamos, um outro pilar importante em estratégias de ganhos constantes com apostas pré-live em longo prazo é a especialização. O apostador que deseja ser um vencedor precisa ter consciência sobre as suas qualidades e os seus defeitos. Em quais mercados você é realmente bom? E quais são os mercados que você não é tão bom assim? Quais são as suas ligas mais lucrativas? Se souber aproveitar bem as informações que podem ser obtidas por meio de perguntas como essas, o apostador vai entender onde deve focar e se especializar para conseguir maximizar os ganhos de forma constante e vencer no longo prazo.
Análise minuciosa
Por fim, mas não menos importante, destacamos que a grande diferença entre apostadores que atuam pré-live e apostadores que atuam ao vivo é a qualidade da análise. Quem faz apostas ao vivo tem mais possibilidades de corrigir erros e também de cometê-los, pois estão suscetíveis aos impactos que uma partida ao vivo causa nos espectadores. Inclusive, existem alguns apostadores que sequer fazem análises pré-jogo e apostam tudo somente no próprio poder de leitura de jogo, algo que não é recomendável. Portanto, apostadores que atuam com apostas pré-live precisam ser muito bons na análise de jogo, visto que a base do trabalho desse tipo de perfil de apostador está justamente em superar as casas de apostas na precificação dos eventos antes deles se iniciarem.
O que é uma aposta pré-live?
A explicação conceitual do que é uma aposta pré-live é bem simples e fácil de compreender. Apostas pré-live são apostas feitas antes de um jogo ser iniciado. Ou seja, toda e qualquer aposta realizada por um apostador em mercados que estejam disponíveis antes do evento esportivo ser iniciado é considerada uma aposta pré-live. A grande diferença entre uma aposta desse tipo e as apostas ao vivo está justamente no período em que a aposta é concretizada, sendo as pré-lives sendo realizadas antes do evento esportivo ser iniciado e as ao vivo com a partida em andamento.
Em quais esportes é possível fazer apostas pré-live?
É possível fazer apostas pré-lives em todos os esportes. Aliás, esse tipo de aposta foi disponibilizada primeiro em relação às apostas ao vivo, portanto, independente de qual seja o esporte que você goste e queira realizar as suas apostas, será possível realizá-las de forma pré-live desde que, claro, o esporte esteja disponível na casa de apostas que você escolheu.
Partidas de mata a mata é aconselhável fazer aposta pré-live?
Quando se trata de apostas em jogos mata-mata, muitos apostadores ficam em dúvida sobre a melhor estratégia a ser adotada. Será que é mais seguro fazer apostas pré-live, antes do início da partida, ou é melhor esperar para ver como o jogo está se desenrolando para então fazer uma aposta ao vivo?
A resposta não é tão simples e vai depender de diversos fatores, como a situação de cada equipe e as condições do próprio jogo. Porém, há algumas dicas que podem ajudar a tomar uma decisão mais informada.
Ao fazer uma aposta pré-live, o apostador se beneficia de cotas geralmente mais altas, o que pode aumentar a possibilidade de lucro. No entanto, é importante levar em consideração que as partidas mata-mata tendem a ser mais imprevisíveis, com as equipes adotando estratégias mais cautelosas e com menos espaço para erros. Por isso, as estatísticas anteriores podem ser menos relevantes nesse contexto e é possível que ocorram mudanças táticas, lesões de jogadores importantes e outras eventualidades que podem alterar o resultado final.
Por outro lado, fazer uma aposta ao vivo pode ser mais arriscado, uma vez que a cotação já está sendo influenciada pela própria dinâmica da partida e o apostador pode perder a cota mais favorável para ele. No entanto, com a vantagem de poder avaliar o desempenho das equipes em tempo real e observar eventuais mudanças nesse panorama.
Para tomar a melhor decisão, o ideal é fazer uma análise cuidadosa de todas as informações disponíveis, como as estatísticas de desempenho, histórico de confrontos entre as equipes e outras informações relevantes. A experiência e o conhecimento do apostador sobre o esporte em questão também pode ser um fator chave na hora de escolher a estratégia ideal.
Além disso, é importante manter uma postura consciente e responsável em relação às apostas, sempre controlando os riscos e evitando exageros. O importante é encontrar a melhor estratégia para cada situação, avaliando os benefícios e riscos de cada escolha.
Por que apostas pré-live não são um dos principais mercados dos apostadores profissionais?
Se você está mergulhando no mundo das apostas esportivas, provavelmente já se deparou com os termos “apostas pré-live” e “apostas ao vivo”. Embora ambas ofereçam oportunidades de ganhar dinheiro, os apostadores profissionais geralmente optam pelas apostas ao vivo como seu mercado preferido. Mas por quê?
Uma das principais razões pelas quais os apostadores profissionais preferem as apostas ao vivo é a capacidade de acessar informações em tempo real. Enquanto as apostas pré-live são baseadas em estatísticas e análises prévias, as apostas ao vivo permitem que os apostadores acompanhem a partida e tomem decisões com base no que está acontecendo naquele instante. Se um jogador-chave se machuca durante o jogo, isso pode ter um impacto significativo no resultado final. E aqueles que estão fazendo apostas ao vivo têm a vantagem de ajustar suas apostas com base nessas informações atualizadas.
Outro fator que influencia a preferência dos apostadores profissionais é o limite de apostas. As apostas pré-live geralmente possuem limites mais baixos em comparação com as apostas ao vivo. Isso significa que os apostadores não podem colocar grandes quantias de dinheiro em um único evento. Para aqueles que visam grandes lucros, as apostas ao vivo se tornam uma opção mais viável, pois permitem apostas de alto valor.
Além disso, as apostas pré-live costumam oferecer menos oportunidades de arbitragem. A arbitragem é a prática de aproveitar as diferenças nas chances oferecidas por diferentes casas de apostas. Embora seja uma estratégia lucrativa para muitos, as apostas pré-live têm menos flutuações nas chances e, portanto, menos oportunidades de arbitragem em comparação com as apostas ao vivo.
No entanto, é importante notar que muitos apostadores profissionais ainda fazem apostas pré-live como parte de sua estratégia. Em certos casos, quando as informações disponíveis antes do jogo são sólidas e respaldam uma decisão confiante, as apostas pré-live podem ser uma maneira eficaz de obter lucros.
Quais sites ajudam na análise de uma aposta pré-live?
Fazer análises de futebol não é uma missão simples. Contudo, quem executa essa atividade diariamente sabe que existem alguns sites e ferramentas importantes que nos ajudam a estar bem informados, algo que é fundamental dentro das apostas esportivas. Pensando nisso, separamos algumas dicas valiosas de sites que vão te ajudar a qualificar as suas análises de futebol por meio de informações detalhadas e de credibilidade.
Casa do Apostador
A Casa do Apostador tem uma ferramenta muito importante para ajudar os apostadores na análise de jogos. A chamada “central de inteligência” do nosso site conta com diversas estatísticas e informações detalhadas sobre os principais times e ligas do futebol brasileiro e mundial. Além dessas informações detalhadas e que servem como base de análise de jogos e preparação para realizar uma aposta pré-live, a Casa do Apostador ainda oferece muitos conteúdos de alta qualidade e que ajudam a comunidade na compreensão de diversos aspectos e conceitos técnicos sobre apostas esportivas.
Whoscored
Um site indispensável para realizar análises de futebol e se preparar para fazer uma aposta pré-live é o WhoScored. Esse site é ótimo para aqueles apostadores que gostam de apostar em ligas de futebol internacionais. Ferramenta completa nesse segmento, o Whoscored oferece diversas opções de dados e análises sobre os mais diversos campeonatos de futebol do mundo. O sistema oferecido pelo site aos usuários é muito completo e entrega informações estatísticas exclusivas, análises prévias das partidas, além de um sistema de notas para as atuações dos atletas nos jogos, algo que pode facilitar e muito a vida dos apostadores que desejam desenvolver boas estratégias de atuação em jogos de futebol.
FlashScore e SofaScore
Muito populares entre os apostadores, sites como o FlashScore e o SofaScore ajudam no dia a dia de quem faz análises de futebol e realiza apostas pré-live. A principal função desses sites é fornecer estatísticas a respeito dos jogos de diversos campeonatos do mundo inteiro. Nesses sites, por exemplo, os apostadores conseguem coletar informações a respeito de tabelas, últimos jogos, resultados recentes e desempenho dos times e dos jogadores. Tudo isso é disponibilizado em tempo real. Plataformas como essas servem como uma espécie de central geral de estatística sobre futebol.
Footstats
O Footstats, site especializado em coleta e análise de informações relacionadas ao futebol, surge como uma boa opção para informações estatísticas e de análise de jogos no mercado brasileiro. Além das informações oferecidas de forma gratuita na plataforma online da empresa, o Footstats também oferece ferramentas pagas aos usuários que desejam um mapeamento mais completo de dados sobre diversas ligas de futebol pelo mundo, incluindo as ligas brasileiras. Quem gosta de estar por dentro de todas as estatísticas de desempenho de equipes e atletas vai ficar satisfeito com o trabalho dessa empresa.
Odds Portal
Por fim, precisamos citar o site Odds Portal. Apesar de não ser uma central de estatísticas ou informações, o site pode ser considerado um dos mais importantes para quem trabalha com apostas esportivas. O Odds Portal é simplesmente um site que oferece o monitoramento das odds de diversos jogos do mundo. Com muitas funções, o Odds Portal mostra as linhas de abertura de um evento e também as linhas atuais. Ou seja, com esse site você consegue acompanhar todas as mudanças de linha que estão acontecendo em todos os campeonatos, tendo assim uma visão mais detalhada sobre as tendências do mercado. Além disso, o Odds Portal pode ajudar os apostadores a escolher qual é o momento certo para realizar as suas apostas, visto que existem funções no site que, inclusive, enviam alertas personalizados aos usuários via email.
É possível fazer apostas pré-live no mercado de escanteios?
O crescimento do mercado de escanteios tem sido bem grande dentro das apostas esportivas e, aos poucos, as principais casas de apostas do mundo estão cedendo espaço para esse tipo de mercado de apostas. Apesar das apostas ao vivo em escanteios serem bastante populares e consideradas como um tipo de carro-chefe do mercado, é sim possível realizar apostas em escanteios de forma pré-live. Basta ao apostador entender como ele deve realizar a precificação do evento e comparar a sua precificação com as linhas oferecidas pelas casas de apostas que projetam a quantidade de escanteios que devem ou não acontecer em um jogo de futebol.
Princípios de um apostador que atua pré-live
As apostas esportivas são muito amplas e sabemos que existem diversas maneiras de atuar dentro desse segmento. Uma das formas mais comuns, por exemplo, está em fazer apostas pré-live. O apostador que se especializa em apostas pré-live é denominado como punter e, normalmente, costuma realizar as suas apostas antes de um jogo iniciar. Separamos alguns dos princípios que influenciam esse perfil de apostador e que explicam porque ele escolhe fazer apostas pré-live.
Gerenciamento de tempo: talvez o motivo mais forte que um apostador tem para escolher fazer apostas pré-live está em uma maior possibilidade de conseguir realizar um bom gerenciamento do seu tempo. Poucos são os apostadores que conseguem se dedicar de forma exclusiva às apostas esportivas. Ou seja, ao realizar apostas pré-live, o apostador consegue gerenciar melhor as horas do seu dia que serão dedicadas às apostas esportivas e assim adquire uma liberdade maior para conciliar as apostas com as outras atividades profissionais ou familiares que precisa realizar em seu dia a dia.
Mais conforto: o conceito de conforto dentro das apostas esportivas é complexo, mas pode ser aplicado na explicação de motivações para um apostador realizar apostas pré-live. Como já dissemos, nem todos os apostadores conseguem se dedicar de forma integral às apostas esportivas, portanto, nem sempre esse perfil de apostador tem tempo e disposição para acompanhar os jogos ao vivo e realizar apostas em live. Logo, ao optar por apostas pré-live, o apostador tem a liberdade de não precisar acompanhar o jogo em tempo real se assim ele quiser.
Maior estabilidade de odds: sabemos que existe uma grande diferença entre realizar apostas pré-live e ao vivo. Uma dessas diferenças, por exemplo, está na estabilidade das odds. Enquanto as odds tendem a se movimentar menos antes do jogo começar, algo que favorece alguns tipos de perfis de apostadores, ao vivo a coisa funciona de forma bem diferente e as odds passam a acompanhar fatores que estão ligados aos minutos do jogo e também aos acontecimentos da partida. Essa instabilidade de odds é ótima para quem está acostumado a atuar nesse tipo de cenário, mas pode ser uma dificuldade para outros perfis de apostadores que não conseguem se adaptar e encontrar valor no sobe e desce das odds ao vivo.
Busca por +EV: esse último princípio é universal entre os apostadores que querem ser lucrativos no longo prazo. Independente da opção ser por realizar apostas pré-live ou ao vivo, qualquer apostador que busca superar as casas de apostas deve sempre procurar realizar apostas com valor esperado positivo. Ou seja, a busca por odds +EV é uma missão que não está necessariamente ligada ao período em que uma aposta é feita, seja ela pré-live ou ao vivo.
Como calcular o valor esperado de uma aposta pré-live?
Uma das formas mais simples de calcular o valor esperado de uma aposta é fazendo a precificação do evento. Esse processo envolve analisar um jogo a fim de entender quais são as probabilidades de cada resultado possível para assim converter isso em odds. A partir desse processo, o apostador consegue ter em mente quais são as probabilidades do evento nas concepções e critérios estabelecidos por ele e, com essa precificação em mãos, terá a possibilidade de comparar os seus resultados com a precificação feita pela casa de apostas.
Exemplo:
Ao precificar um jogo entre Flamengo e Corinthians, o apostador chegou a conclusão que o Flamengo tem 50% de chance de vencer o Corinthians. Ou seja, para uma probabilidade de 50%, a odd justa é 2.00. Acontece que a casa de apostas está oferecendo uma odd de 2.20 para a vitória do Flamengo, pois acredita que a chance do time carioca sair vitorioso é de apenas 45%. Neste caso, o apostador encontrou uma aposta +EV, com valor esperado positivo.
O que isso significa?
A busca por apostas com valor esperado positivo, ou seja, apostas de valor, são a base do trabalho de um apostador, pois realizar esse tipo de aposta significa ter grandes chances de lucrar a longo prazo. Por isso, quando encontramos apostas de valor esperado positivo, como no exemplo acima, devemos concretizar a aposta, pois se estivermos corretos em nossa precificação, significa que encontramos um erro nesse jogo e a casa de apostas ofereceu uma cotação maior do que deveria.
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