Fairline: Como Trabalhar nas Apostas Esportivas de MMA?
Casa do Apostador Carregando...
Como montar a sua Fairline?
sex 07 maio/21

Como montar a sua Fairline?


Monte sua Fairline: Parte 1 

A Fairline é o último passo antes de precificar uma odd e avaliar uma aposta de valor. Por que o último? Pois a metodologia que utilizo é baseada na experiência que tenho com MMA e atletas do UFC, mais a técnica utilizada por Danilo Pereira no futebol.  

Antes de vir para o time e me profissionalizar nas apostas esportivas, já assistia seus vídeos no YouTube. Na minha página do instagram @cleber_mma vocês irão ver um post com a foto do Danilo onde faço um paralelo entre o seu método e os estudos que estava desenvolvendo na época, pois ainda buscava entender a como dar valor a uma linha de dinheiro justa. 

O meu objetivo era não só achar o resultado das lutas, coisa que a experiência com os atletas do UFC me trouxeram, mas descobrir o valor que estivesse encoberto e precificado pelas casas de apostas 

Dito isso, organizei 20 itens que entendo ser fundamental para se descobrir uma linha justa.  

A Fairline que desenvolvi é uma importante ferramenta para descobrir os underdogs. Tanto que numa pesquisa recente feita Rafael Andrade, um dos cabeças da empresa Aposta de Valor,  descobriu que o meu maior percentual de acertos nas apostas está entre 2 e 2.40 do que em odds 1.7/1.9. A isso devo não só a experiência com lutas, mas a Fairline desenvolvida pelo Danilão.  

Trocação  

Este é o primeiro item para uma avaliação de um casamento de lutas. Uma vez que toda a luta começa em pé. Por mais que o combate seja entre grapplers, será a troca de golpes em pé o primeiro momento em que o combate se desenvolverá.  

O que faço para avaliar se há superioridade técnica de um sobre o outro?  

Neste caso, é realmente importante entender de lutas e estratégia de luta. A parte técnica e o conhecimento específico, neste quesito, é fundamental.   

No meu caso, sou instrutor de boxe formado pelo professor Raff Giglio, treinador responsável pela preparação do Esquiva Falcão e sua medalha de prata nas Olimpíadas de Londres, em 2012. Além disso, treinei thai e kick boxing por mais de 10 anos. Isso me trouxe a base para saber e poder avaliar bem a técnica dos adversários (em pé) dentro do cage.

É importante avaliar, neste caso, se o atleta domina a distancia, o “time” de entradas dos golpes, seus chutes, principais combinações, distancia, altura, envergadura, guarda, movimentação, ângulos, mobilidade, se recebe muitos golpes na cabeça, se é um “atacante” ou um contra golpeador, se joga mais na longa ou na curta distancia, entre tantos outros elementos utilizados pelos atletas para superar seus oponentes.  

Wrestling  

Você, como eu, não precisa ser um especialista. Mas entender bem do esporte é fundamental. Por conta de trabalhar com atletas do UFC há 7 anos e com o Warlley Alves (um striker que necessita de informações de grapplers), contribuiu muito para entender bem sobre as principais entradas de quedas, as mais eficientes, as defesas, o jeito. O atleta que é muito técnico (Khabib, Jon Jones, Kamaru Usman, Valentina Shevchenco) não faz força para executar o movimento e colocar para baixo, todos eles tem um “time” de entrada e de defesa muito acima da média. 

Jiu jitsu e ground and Pound  

Estas são duas modalidades muito importantes para se avaliar quando a luta desenvolve no solo. Por quê? Existem muitos “mitos” e “especialistas” que afirmam determinadas coisas que, no meu modo de enxergar o esporte, são contestáveis. Por exemplo:  

“O atleta que fica por baixo no MMA está em desvantagem” ou “ficar dentro da guarda do oponente, faz o atleta que está por cima perder pressão e impacto por causa da envergadura, o ideal e buscar a montada”. Vou dar a minha visão sobre cada uma das situações. 

Por baixo – de um modo geral no MMA, estar por baixo não é bom, ainda mais quando se esta enfrentando um wrestler experiente e de bom nível. Entretanto, no caso da atleta Mayra Sheetara, onde sua especialidade é o armlock, estar por baixo, independente do atleta ser um wrestler ou não, é a sua zona de conforto. A sua penúltima luta foi encerrada desta forma e no 1R. 

Dentro da guarda – se o atleta tem bastante envergadura como Jon Jones, ficar dentro da guarda, não será problema algum. Jones nocauteou vários oponentes desta forma. 

 Tático 

 Essa é uma das partes mais importantes, no meu modo de ver. Ser tático é ter a capacidade de mudar o plano de jogo a depender da situação da luta, seja ela um momento de superioridade ou não.  

Por vezes, encontramos atletas que não são muito bons na parte em pé e no chão. Mas que sabem se comportar muito bem a mudança de jogo em situações de dificuldade. Quando diante de um striker de igual poder, utilizam a parte de quedas. O sul koreano Da Un Jung (um striker de nível com 10 KO) contra o atleta Willian Knight, aplicou todo seu background de judô para vencer a luta com tranquilidade por pontos. Pois não queria se colocar em risco diante de um striker arriscado como o norte americano.   

Espero que tenham gostado. Semana que vem tem mais, galera! 

Como entender as Fairlines dentro das apostas esportivas?

  1. Encontrando linhas desajustadas.
  2. A existência das Fairlines.
  3. Palestra Danilo Pereira – Sistema de Fair Lines – Parte 1 (BetMasters)
  4. Palestra Danilo Pereira – Sistema de Fair Lines Parte 2 (BetMasters)

Inscreva-se na minha lista VIP para receber conteúdos de apostas profissionais exclusivos. 

Além disso, me acompanhe também no Instagram.

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  • Glogs disse:

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    Given how watching someone’s face being transformed by makeup can be a fascinating experience, it’s not surprising that make-up tutorials are a steadfastly popular theme in Internet videos. And now, it seems a huge number of Internet users around the world have been mesmerized by the soothing, ASMR-like quality of the video. Although the illustrated woman in the video doesn’t make any movements except with her eyes, it’s fun to watch the way all the makeup items move and apply themselves onto her face. Plus, we can see how the sound of the containers and tubes being opened and the creams and liquids being applied can be strangely hypnotic. One of the viewers has even commented that it feels like playing a game. And now, it seems a huge number of Internet users around the world have been mesmerized by the soothing, ASMR-like quality of the video. Although the illustrated woman in the video doesn’t make any movements except with her eyes, it’s fun to watch the way all the makeup items move and apply themselves onto her face. Plus, we can see how the sound of the containers and tubes being opened and the creams and liquids being applied can be strangely hypnotic. One of the viewers has even commented that it feels like playing a game.
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    The NBC WSJ poll was conducted Sept. 20-24 — so mostly after Walker suspended his campaign on Sept. 21. Only one GOP primary voter (out of 59 interviews) had selected Walker before he was removed from the survey. Oops! Looks like you have exceeded the limit to bookmark the image. Remove some to bookmark this image. Carlson hosted the highest-rated prime-time program on the top-rated cable news network and played a significant role in original programming for the subscription-based streaming platform Fox Nation. That said, multiple reports have surfaced that Carlson’s popularity at the network had waned significantly, with colleagues weary of his conspiracy theories, pro-Putin commentary, and not-so-subtle racist allegations. Writing for the Wall Street Journal, Keach Hagey, Joe Flint, and Isabella Simonetti report:
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