Como montar a sua Fairline?
Monte sua Fairline: Parte 1
A Fairline é o último passo antes de precificar uma odd e avaliar uma aposta de valor. Por que o último? Pois a metodologia que utilizo é baseada na experiência que tenho com MMA e atletas do UFC, mais a técnica utilizada por Danilo Pereira no futebol.
Antes de vir para o time e me profissionalizar nas apostas esportivas, já assistia seus vídeos no YouTube. Na minha página do instagram @cleber_mma vocês irão ver um post com a foto do Danilo onde faço um paralelo entre o seu método e os estudos que estava desenvolvendo na época, pois ainda buscava entender a como dar valor a uma linha de dinheiro justa.
O meu objetivo era não só achar o resultado das lutas, coisa que a experiência com os atletas do UFC me trouxeram, mas descobrir o valor que estivesse encoberto e precificado pelas casas de apostas
Dito isso, organizei 20 itens que entendo ser fundamental para se descobrir uma linha justa.
A Fairline que desenvolvi é uma importante ferramenta para descobrir os underdogs. Tanto que numa pesquisa recente feita Rafael Andrade, um dos cabeças da empresa Aposta de Valor, descobriu que o meu maior percentual de acertos nas apostas está entre 2 e 2.40 do que em odds 1.7/1.9. A isso devo não só a experiência com lutas, mas a Fairline desenvolvida pelo Danilão.
Trocação
Este é o primeiro item para uma avaliação de um casamento de lutas. Uma vez que toda a luta começa em pé. Por mais que o combate seja entre grapplers, será a troca de golpes em pé o primeiro momento em que o combate se desenvolverá.
O que faço para avaliar se há superioridade técnica de um sobre o outro?
Neste caso, é realmente importante entender de lutas e estratégia de luta. A parte técnica e o conhecimento específico, neste quesito, é fundamental.
No meu caso, sou instrutor de boxe formado pelo professor Raff Giglio, treinador responsável pela preparação do Esquiva Falcão e sua medalha de prata nas Olimpíadas de Londres, em 2012. Além disso, treinei thai e kick boxing por mais de 10 anos. Isso me trouxe a base para saber e poder avaliar bem a técnica dos adversários (em pé) dentro do cage.
É importante avaliar, neste caso, se o atleta domina a distancia, o “time” de entradas dos golpes, seus chutes, principais combinações, distancia, altura, envergadura, guarda, movimentação, ângulos, mobilidade, se recebe muitos golpes na cabeça, se é um “atacante” ou um contra golpeador, se joga mais na longa ou na curta distancia, entre tantos outros elementos utilizados pelos atletas para superar seus oponentes.
Wrestling
Você, como eu, não precisa ser um especialista. Mas entender bem do esporte é fundamental. Por conta de trabalhar com atletas do UFC há 7 anos e com o Warlley Alves (um striker que necessita de informações de grapplers), contribuiu muito para entender bem sobre as principais entradas de quedas, as mais eficientes, as defesas, o jeito. O atleta que é muito técnico (Khabib, Jon Jones, Kamaru Usman, Valentina Shevchenco) não faz força para executar o movimento e colocar para baixo, todos eles tem um “time” de entrada e de defesa muito acima da média.
Jiu jitsu e ground and Pound
Estas são duas modalidades muito importantes para se avaliar quando a luta desenvolve no solo. Por quê? Existem muitos “mitos” e “especialistas” que afirmam determinadas coisas que, no meu modo de enxergar o esporte, são contestáveis. Por exemplo:
“O atleta que fica por baixo no MMA está em desvantagem” ou “ficar dentro da guarda do oponente, faz o atleta que está por cima perder pressão e impacto por causa da envergadura, o ideal e buscar a montada”. Vou dar a minha visão sobre cada uma das situações.
Por baixo – de um modo geral no MMA, estar por baixo não é bom, ainda mais quando se esta enfrentando um wrestler experiente e de bom nível. Entretanto, no caso da atleta Mayra Sheetara, onde sua especialidade é o armlock, estar por baixo, independente do atleta ser um wrestler ou não, é a sua zona de conforto. A sua penúltima luta foi encerrada desta forma e no 1R.
Dentro da guarda – se o atleta tem bastante envergadura como Jon Jones, ficar dentro da guarda, não será problema algum. Jones nocauteou vários oponentes desta forma.
Tático
Essa é uma das partes mais importantes, no meu modo de ver. Ser tático é ter a capacidade de mudar o plano de jogo a depender da situação da luta, seja ela um momento de superioridade ou não.
Por vezes, encontramos atletas que não são muito bons na parte em pé e no chão. Mas que sabem se comportar muito bem a mudança de jogo em situações de dificuldade. Quando diante de um striker de igual poder, utilizam a parte de quedas. O sul koreano Da Un Jung (um striker de nível com 10 KO) contra o atleta Willian Knight, aplicou todo seu background de judô para vencer a luta com tranquilidade por pontos. Pois não queria se colocar em risco diante de um striker arriscado como o norte americano.
Espero que tenham gostado. Semana que vem tem mais, galera!
Como entender as Fairlines dentro das apostas esportivas?
- Encontrando linhas desajustadas.
- A existência das Fairlines.
- Palestra Danilo Pereira – Sistema de Fair Lines – Parte 1 (BetMasters)
- Palestra Danilo Pereira – Sistema de Fair Lines Parte 2 (BetMasters)
Inscreva-se na minha lista VIP para receber conteúdos de apostas profissionais exclusivos.
Além disso, me acompanhe também no Instagram.
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Найти «заброшки» можно на сайтах регистраторов, либо на тематических онлайн-аукционах. Там же можно ознакомиться с информацией о предыдущих владельцах, рейтинге страниц и всем, что нужно знать перед покупкой! И ещё одно примечание из документации Google: изображение должно располагаться вверху страницы. Бот Google не умеет скроллить страницу, а кроме того, изображения вверху имеют больший семантический приоритет, выступая как основная иллюстрация ко всему контенту. Чтобы найти хороший дроп-домен, придется вложить достаточное количество времени и «немного» денег (от 1000 до 10000 рублей). А теперь о минусах, которые в себе «таят» брошенные адреса: Все подходящие варианты доменов заносил в таблицу. Всего у меня получилось найти 5 доменов, более ли менее подходящих. Конечно супер дропов я не нашел, поэтому буду работать с тем что есть. Домен который ранее использовался, но на данный момент доступен к покупке.
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However, when making a Bitcoin SV price forecast, we should look at its fundamental value at the present moment and evaluate its prospects without relying on the (statistically speaking, rather slim) possibility that BSV will become the best and most technologically advanced cryptocurrency one day. Here are our Bitcoin SV price predictions for the coming years. Bitcoin SV is believed to have equal momentum and experiences an equal change in the price dynamics in consideration with… A spike for BCH can also be seen in the number of active addresses per day on April 8, though since that day’s peak, it dropped 85% in total, and almost 4% since yesterday. Meanwhile, BSV saw an almost 10% rise in the number of active addresses since yesterday. Robinhood announced that it will no longer support Bitcoin SV from January 25, sending the crypto sinking some 10%.
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IDでもっと便利に新規取得 ログイン 今年もカスノーグローブ出たってことで確立の配分が同じGIFルーレットを作りました。 杉元が誰かの名前を呼んでるだけのGifルーレット これ、タップなりクリックなりしてGIFアニメの動きを止めるんですが、そのタイミングによって変な組み合わせが出る、というギミックですね。
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メンバーズクラブ：有り Seven Luck Membershipドリンクサービス：有りフードサービス：有り開業：2006テーブルゲームの種類：バカラ、ブラックジャック、ルーレット、タイサイ（Sic-Bo） またゲームの種類も豊富なので、初心者のみならず上級者の人でも楽しめます。中には日本人を対象としたイベントやブースもあるので、私たちには利用しやすいのがメリットです。 それではここで、セブンラックカジノでのゲームの遊び方について説明していきましょう。初心者や女性にとって最も簡単なゲームは、日本でもお馴染みのスロットマシーンです。ただ最近では、スロットマシーンよりむしろテーブルゲームの方が、遊び方の種類も豊富なため人気が高いようです。
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Get us in your feed We take a look at how Arsenal’s £105m bid for West Ham midfielder Declan Rice compares to the most expensive transfers in Premier League history. The signing of the Hammers captain for £100million plus £5m in add-ons will not only break Arsenal’s own transfer record but also see Rice become the most expensive Englishman in Premier League history. The signing of the Hammers captain for £100million plus £5m in add-ons will not only break Arsenal’s own transfer record but also see Rice become the most expensive Englishman in Premier League history. We take a look at how Arsenal’s £105m bid for West Ham midfielder Declan Rice compares to the most expensive transfers in Premier League history. The latest Arsenal news, transfer rumours, team news, fixtures and more from the Emirates Stadium. Breaking AFC rumours & news now, 24 7.
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