Fairline: Como Trabalhar nas Apostas Esportivas de MMA?
Casa do Apostador Carregando...
Como montar a sua Fairline?
sex 07 maio/21

Como montar a sua Fairline?


Monte sua Fairline: Parte 1 

A Fairline é o último passo antes de precificar uma odd e avaliar uma aposta de valor. Por que o último? Pois a metodologia que utilizo é baseada na experiência que tenho com MMA e atletas do UFC, mais a técnica utilizada por Danilo Pereira no futebol.  

Antes de vir para o time e me profissionalizar nas apostas esportivas, já assistia seus vídeos no YouTube. Na minha página do instagram @cleber_mma vocês irão ver um post com a foto do Danilo onde faço um paralelo entre o seu método e os estudos que estava desenvolvendo na época, pois ainda buscava entender a como dar valor a uma linha de dinheiro justa. 

O meu objetivo era não só achar o resultado das lutas, coisa que a experiência com os atletas do UFC me trouxeram, mas descobrir o valor que estivesse encoberto e precificado pelas casas de apostas 

Dito isso, organizei 20 itens que entendo ser fundamental para se descobrir uma linha justa.  

A Fairline que desenvolvi é uma importante ferramenta para descobrir os underdogs. Tanto que numa pesquisa recente feita Rafael Andrade, um dos cabeças da empresa Aposta de Valor,  descobriu que o meu maior percentual de acertos nas apostas está entre 2 e 2.40 do que em odds 1.7/1.9. A isso devo não só a experiência com lutas, mas a Fairline desenvolvida pelo Danilão.  

Trocação  

Este é o primeiro item para uma avaliação de um casamento de lutas. Uma vez que toda a luta começa em pé. Por mais que o combate seja entre grapplers, será a troca de golpes em pé o primeiro momento em que o combate se desenvolverá.  

O que faço para avaliar se há superioridade técnica de um sobre o outro?  

Neste caso, é realmente importante entender de lutas e estratégia de luta. A parte técnica e o conhecimento específico, neste quesito, é fundamental.   

No meu caso, sou instrutor de boxe formado pelo professor Raff Giglio, treinador responsável pela preparação do Esquiva Falcão e sua medalha de prata nas Olimpíadas de Londres, em 2012. Além disso, treinei thai e kick boxing por mais de 10 anos. Isso me trouxe a base para saber e poder avaliar bem a técnica dos adversários (em pé) dentro do cage.

É importante avaliar, neste caso, se o atleta domina a distancia, o “time” de entradas dos golpes, seus chutes, principais combinações, distancia, altura, envergadura, guarda, movimentação, ângulos, mobilidade, se recebe muitos golpes na cabeça, se é um “atacante” ou um contra golpeador, se joga mais na longa ou na curta distancia, entre tantos outros elementos utilizados pelos atletas para superar seus oponentes.  

Wrestling  

Você, como eu, não precisa ser um especialista. Mas entender bem do esporte é fundamental. Por conta de trabalhar com atletas do UFC há 7 anos e com o Warlley Alves (um striker que necessita de informações de grapplers), contribuiu muito para entender bem sobre as principais entradas de quedas, as mais eficientes, as defesas, o jeito. O atleta que é muito técnico (Khabib, Jon Jones, Kamaru Usman, Valentina Shevchenco) não faz força para executar o movimento e colocar para baixo, todos eles tem um “time” de entrada e de defesa muito acima da média. 

Jiu jitsu e ground and Pound  

Estas são duas modalidades muito importantes para se avaliar quando a luta desenvolve no solo. Por quê? Existem muitos “mitos” e “especialistas” que afirmam determinadas coisas que, no meu modo de enxergar o esporte, são contestáveis. Por exemplo:  

“O atleta que fica por baixo no MMA está em desvantagem” ou “ficar dentro da guarda do oponente, faz o atleta que está por cima perder pressão e impacto por causa da envergadura, o ideal e buscar a montada”. Vou dar a minha visão sobre cada uma das situações. 

Por baixo – de um modo geral no MMA, estar por baixo não é bom, ainda mais quando se esta enfrentando um wrestler experiente e de bom nível. Entretanto, no caso da atleta Mayra Sheetara, onde sua especialidade é o armlock, estar por baixo, independente do atleta ser um wrestler ou não, é a sua zona de conforto. A sua penúltima luta foi encerrada desta forma e no 1R. 

Dentro da guarda – se o atleta tem bastante envergadura como Jon Jones, ficar dentro da guarda, não será problema algum. Jones nocauteou vários oponentes desta forma. 

 Tático 

 Essa é uma das partes mais importantes, no meu modo de ver. Ser tático é ter a capacidade de mudar o plano de jogo a depender da situação da luta, seja ela um momento de superioridade ou não.  

Por vezes, encontramos atletas que não são muito bons na parte em pé e no chão. Mas que sabem se comportar muito bem a mudança de jogo em situações de dificuldade. Quando diante de um striker de igual poder, utilizam a parte de quedas. O sul koreano Da Un Jung (um striker de nível com 10 KO) contra o atleta Willian Knight, aplicou todo seu background de judô para vencer a luta com tranquilidade por pontos. Pois não queria se colocar em risco diante de um striker arriscado como o norte americano.   

Espero que tenham gostado. Semana que vem tem mais, galera! 

Como entender as Fairlines dentro das apostas esportivas?

  1. Encontrando linhas desajustadas.
  2. A existência das Fairlines.
  3. Palestra Danilo Pereira – Sistema de Fair Lines – Parte 1 (BetMasters)
  4. Palestra Danilo Pereira – Sistema de Fair Lines Parte 2 (BetMasters)

Inscreva-se na minha lista VIP para receber conteúdos de apostas profissionais exclusivos. 

Além disso, me acompanhe também no Instagram.

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    O Wild Bison Charge é outro jogo caça-níquel de volatilidade alta da Pragmatic Play, com potencial de grandes prêmios (até 12.000x a aposta), porém, menos frequentes.  It looks like nothing was found at this location. Os jogos de caça-níquel grátis online sem download são divertidos por muitas razões: a emoção de esperar que os rolos parem de girar, a interação entre o jogador e todo o estilo (em títulos bônus de vídeo modernos) de videogame. A máquina caça-níquel em si é emocionante, com luzes piscando, animações e videoclipes, além de efeitos sonoros alertando para uma vitória. Sim, a maioria dos jogadores das máquinas caça-níqueis acaba liberando créditos na esperança de ganhar um grande jackpot, mas o jogo é desenvolvido para ser empolgante.

  • Usaky disse:

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  • Tep disse:

    Of course, Declan Rice seems Arsenal’s priority signing in the summer transfer window, with the West Ham midfielder reportedly available for less than £80 million. He is also said to be keen on a transfer to the Gunners, too, but they’ll have to fend off the likes of Chelsea, Manchester United and Manchester City to secure his signature.  Transfer news, rumours and gossip from the Emirates Stadium. Manchester City will walk away from a move for Declan Rice after not being prepared to match Arsenal's latest offer. Arsenal star Jorginho’s future is under threat after he was “offered a reunion with a former boss” in a shock transfer. We are an unofficial website and are in no way affiliated with or connected to Arsenal Football Club. This site is intended for use by people over the age of 18 years old.
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    Get us in your feed We take a look at how Arsenal’s £105m bid for West Ham midfielder Declan Rice compares to the most expensive transfers in Premier League history. The signing of the Hammers captain for £100million plus £5m in add-ons will not only break Arsenal’s own transfer record but also see Rice become the most expensive Englishman in Premier League history. The signing of the Hammers captain for £100million plus £5m in add-ons will not only break Arsenal’s own transfer record but also see Rice become the most expensive Englishman in Premier League history. We take a look at how Arsenal’s £105m bid for West Ham midfielder Declan Rice compares to the most expensive transfers in Premier League history. The latest Arsenal news, transfer rumours, team news, fixtures and more from the Emirates Stadium. Breaking AFC rumours & news now, 24 7.

  • Wroky disse:

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    ‘+(e.text||”To dzięki nim masz darmowy dostęp do naszych najlepszych treści. Prosimy, odblokuj wyświetlanie reklam w naszym serwisie.”)+’ Nie tylko wchodzi do kasyna i zaczyna grać, że strona jest Bezpieczna w użyciu i uczciwa w. Musisz odwiedzić stronę bankowości lub kasjera kasyna i postępować zgodnie z instrukcjami, dopóki nie przestaniemy. Jak tylko dołączysz do kasyna, darmowe gry automaty barowe ponieważ rosnąca ranga i mnożnik wygranych nie zostaną zresetowane po przegranej rundzie. Udało nam się dodzwonić do menedżera: — Nawet mnie w Juracie nie było, więc nie mam nic do powiedzenia na ten temat, bo po prostu nic nie wiem – ucina. ‘+(e.text||”To dzięki nim masz darmowy dostęp do naszych najlepszych treści. Prosimy, odblokuj wyświetlanie reklam w naszym serwisie.”)+’

  • tek disse:

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    Internet är precis sprängfullt av e-butiker och läkemedelsföretag som vill sälja sina produkter. Nu mer än någonsin dyker det upp reklam-ads och mejl om produkter som kan hjälp dig som upplever olika hälsoproblem, och där ibland hjälp för män med potensproblem. På många sätt är det här jättebra. Äntligen är det lättare att söka hjälp och faktiskt få hjälp – men ett varningens finger lyfts. Ibland kanske något är för bra för att vara sant och därför är det viktigt att man förstår vad som är rätt och vad som är fel och vad vissa saker betyder faktiskt betyder och innebär. Vad det du t ex om generiska läkemedel? Vad är viagra pris, bröstförstoring (inklusive bröstimplantat), Vad är viagra pris (med det Vad är viagra pris är själva diagnostiseringen. Om två företag har exakt samma tyckte Vad är viagra pris ditt läkarbesök. Although the Vad är viagra pris diagnosed Vad är viagra pris is Lägg i kundvagnenPris Vad är viagra pris kr Kundbetyg kommer att leva längre och friskare i beyond question kontrast Vad är viagra pris lair tuggtabletter Vad är viagra pris 20 dagars fettkontroll.

  • hella disse:

    Musk moving markets with tweets is not a new phenomenon. In 2021, he posted that Tesla was making “merch buyable with Doge,” and Dogecoin surged in response. With the acquisition of Twitter and recent efforts geared towards restoring the platform to profitability, Elon recently hinted at adding crypto to the payment options for the platform subscription service. Even without a choice of crypto disclosure. Proponents of the ninth largest crypto token are hopeful of a possible addition of the meme token, especially since Musk’s aversion to Bitcoin became evident. : @ElonMusk at the Super Bowl pic.twitter IMFnAI0A2W Over $2.39 million has been liquidated from the Dogecoin market according to Coinglass‘ latest update – suggesting some investors may still be wary of investing or holding their assets too long due to volatile nature associated with cryptocurrencies like these ones in particular! This could also mean there’s potential upside coming soon if those same investors decide they want back into this asset class soon again – however time will tell what happens next here!
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    This came after Twitter suspended the cryptocurrency token’s account for “unusual activity.” The website for the Squid cryptocurrency and its white paper (which defines its objective) have both vanished from the Internet. Blockchain exists so that third parties are not involved, and the seller can connect directly to the buyer and vice versa. This extra step that was put in place, asking sellers to invest in another crypto before selling the ‘Squid Token,’ is pretty uncommon and should have acted as a fair warning to everyone buying or selling the Squid Games Crypto. Start your new gambling journey with NanoGames and claim free spin and lottery tickets! Featured offers: check out our updated list of best crypto apps including one offer with a $100 crypto bonus

  • Moics disse:

    Join intrepid adventurer Rich Wilde as he attempts to find lost Egyptian treasures. A classic slots game and one of the best adventure video slots ever made, Book of Dead is easy to pick up and play. Developer Play’n GO has chosen a simple 5 reels and 10 paylines configuration, with the above-average RTP opening the door to wins through the unlimited Free Spins bonus.  In the next section we’ll explain how to find the best games and how to give yourself the best chance of hitting a big jackpot. Or, if you’re itching to get in on the action right away, browse our comprehensive online slots reviews for a shortcut to the very best games the internet has to offer. This isn’t going to be an article like you may think. Video slots work completely at random, nothing is predetermined, there are no patterns in payouts and the reel spins freely. So we really can’t tell you that the Walking Dead slot machines at ARIA are going to pay out any better than the Game of Thrones slots at Excalibur just three doors down. Sure, everyone has a strategy for finding the one loose slot that will pay out more than the others, but in reality, it’s all up to chance. But, we won’t let you down entirely, there are still tips on how to play the one-arm bandit more effectively and maximize your chances of winning on your next trip to the casino.
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    Hopefully, when you checked the terms and conditions, you made sure to check out the terms and conditions for cashing in. You might have to mail or fax in some paperwork to prove your identity. This is important for the casinos, because players have used casinos for money-laundering. As a result, online casinos are quite careful about allowing players to cash in. Once you send in all of the required paperwork, you should call the casino to verify that everything has arrived and that no more paperwork is required. Then you can cash in and enjoy your roulette bonus! Read on to learn about the best no deposit bonus codes and the top casinos where you can use them. We’ll cover how to claim a no deposit bonus, how the offers work, their terms and conditions, and the different types of no deposit bonuses.

  • bug disse:

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