Casas Europeias x Asiáticas: Evolução do Mercado
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A evolução do mercado e a ligação entre os mercados europeus e asiáticos.
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A evolução do mercado e a ligação entre os mercados europeus e asiáticos.


Este artigo é quase completamente inspirado em uma frase que ouvi de um amigo neste final de semana: ” O mercado asiático está cada vez mais esperto “. De uma maneira geral, a sua afirmação é o resultado de um apanhado de coisas que me fizeram pensar em escrever um pouco de maneira mais solta e corrida sobre como se formam as odds asiáticas e passear um pouco sobre assunto.

Para começo de conversa, é preciso entender que quando falamos de mercado asiático, estamos englobando casas como Sbobet, 188Bet, IBC, ISN, Singbet e outras tantas chinesas, mas também estamos de alguma forma colocando neste meio a Pinnacle que apesar de não ser asiática, é uma gigante em termos de odds e limites, e que nos faz coloca-la no mesmo patamar.

Quando estamos falando de européias, falamos de Bet365, Sportingbet, Bwin, Betfair e outras Sportsbooks mais amadoras no sentido punter. 

Alguns clientes, amigos e curiosos já me fizeram várias vezes a mesma pergunta: “Qual a relação entre as casas Europeias e as casas asiáticas em termos de odds, e porque as asiáticas abrem as apostas normalmente bastante tempo depois das Européias ?” 

Para entender a ligação entre as odds destes 2 mundos, é preciso entender as características principais de cada um dos dois cenários, de uma forma didática vamos separar no seguinte modo:

imagesEuropeias: Normalmente casas para iniciantes, apostadores que procuram bônus e uma variedade de mercado como HT/FT, Ambas equipes Marcam, Time A para não levar gols, Cantos e outros tantos mercados. Normalmente são casas amadoras, que limitam os seus apostadores caso eles consigam levar vantagem (Lucro), comprovado sobre estes bookies, Algumas oferecem opções como Cashouts, o que é muito bem visto pelos brasileiros, e no geral, todas elas possuem odds MUITO MENORESque as casas asiáticas. São casas que limitam normalmente em até 200, 300, 400 USD a aposta nos eventos brasileiros. São conhecidas por aceitar a opção de pagamento via transferência bancária, pois muitos brasileiros (normalmente iniciantes), não possuem uma carteira virtual como Skrill ou Neteller.

bitcoin-sportsbookEm resumo, podemos taxar estas casas como boas opções para quem tem uma banca modesta, aposta com variedade de mercados mas não se preocupa em ter melhores odds ao longo prazo (O que é errado, mas é tema para outra discussão).

Asiáticas: Ao contrário do que muitos pensam, não é apenas um lugar para quem tem muito dinheiro a apostar. As casas asiáticas (Leia-se também a Pinnacle), são casas mais profissionais, não se importam em oferecer bônus aos seus clientes (embora de uns tempos para cá, algumas tenham entrado neste modelo), 99% não permite que o seu apostador use transferência bancário, e sim trabalham com carteira virtual Skril/Neteller.As casas asiáticas ofercem odds sempre maiores em relação ao mercado Europeu, a média é de 0.3 a 0.10 ticks.


Mas agora vem a cereja do bolo:
 As casas asiáticas não limitam seus ganhos, não importa se você conseguiu arrancar da casa de aposta 30 mil Dólares, eles vão manter a sua conta e te deixar seguir a vida. Os limites para cada evento são MUITO maiores do que os limites impostos pelas casas europeias, em média 3x maior do que o mercado da 365 por exemplo te libera por aposta, com isto acabam tendo menos sensibilidade nas odds, isto é, menos queda a cada hit apresentado. Normalmente seus mercados são restritos a Total Lines (Over/Under) e HCP Side.

Em resumo: As casas asiáticas não se incomodam em te buscar como cliente, te dando bônus, mil mercados, mas sim em te proporcionar limites, confiança e melhores odds a longo prazo

Uma vez que entendemos as características, vamos ao mercado:

images (1)Cada um dos mundos, utilizam oddmakers diferentes para definir um determinado preço do evento, enquanto os oddmakers da Bet365, Sportingbet fazem odds com muita antecedência (3, 4, 5, dias antes do evento), os odds das chinesas lançam normalmente apostas ” Today ” ou seja, no dia do evento, e para algumas ligas grandes, apostas Early.

A diferença é que as casas como a Bet365 define para o mercado brasileiro, preços ajustados quase que totalmente em cima de estatísticas, (não vamos pensar em grandes ligas), os makers não se importam muito em ter controle sobre informações, formas e tantos detalhes, com isto as odds são feitas de forma antecipada e ajustam-se a cada rodada com o básico do importante para cada equipe. Sim, eles sabem que determinado time não contará com 2, 3, 4, jogadores, mas na maioria dos casos isto pouco influi. Usando a Copa SP como exemplo, com um pouco de pesquisa no assunto eles poderiam saber que time X tem Rank melhor que time Y, mas não merecia a odd apresentada, mas porque não fazem então ?

A resposta tem muitas vertentes e é pra lá de complexa, mas de uma maneira geral: Não compensa para a casa mudar o seu portfólio de apostas, sair do seu “enquadro” ou mudar a sua estratégia em um mercado pouco relevante e de poucos limites permitidos não é simplesmente interessante.

images (2)A Bet365 e outras europeias, ganham clientes das asiáticas e chamam atenção, justamente por permitir apostas antecipadas dias antes do evento, justamente por ter odds “desajustadas”, justamente por não importa-se com mercado brasileiro, em outras palavras eles liberam uma porção de migalhas como limite, e deixa com que os apostadores ” ajustem o preço dos jogos ” com cada um dos hits que vai moldando a linha até chegar ao seu fair line, de maneira quase automática devido a sensibilidade dos limites apresentados. Em outras palavras, entenda que uma aposta de 200 USD na Bet365 pode despencar 0.10 ticks, enquanto 200 USD em uma grande bookie, não move praticamente nada.

Para a estrategia europeia, mais vale ter limites baixos em Early games, do que limites altos no dia de jogo, pois simplesmente não é do conceito da casa, além disso, existem maneiras de se precaver dos ” profissionais que deveriam estar no mercado asiático, mas atuam no mercado europeu “, como ? “Limitando-os” Ganhe dinheiro deles e a suspensão de sua conta vai chegar, bem rapidinho.

Engana-se quem pensar que de alguma maneira a casa leva seus prejuízos trabalhando assim. Saiba que menos de 3% dos apostadovzivy9res em todo o mundo levam vantagem sobre os bookies, e saiba também que o juice de cada casa é ajustado de acordo com cada entrada. As casas nunca oferecem @2 para os dois lados, e de oferecer @1.92 e @1.92 já lucram 0.08 de alguém, quando determinado hit chega ao desbalanço, move-se uma linha para o outro lado onde os próximos hits com limites diferentes farão com que a casa equilibre as contas novamente, além disto é comum diversas manobras entre os proprios bookies que apostam uns nos outros fazendo surebets ou trade interno (sim, isso ocorre, e muito!)

E finalmente, qual a relação de um mercado com outro ?

De maneira clara, a frase do meu amigo que deu início a este artigo pode ser respondida por vários modos, mas o mais resumido seria:

Hoje o apostador asiático, sofre uma concorrência de vários lados, Os preços lançados na 365 dias antes de serem lançados na asia, são severamente ajustados pelos apostadores, tornando as linhas de ” value ” para ” fair “, com isto o que você poderia ter -0.25 na asia, como valor, ao ser balanceada com os hits dias antes nas europeias, torna-se -0.5 em fair, ou seja, o apostador asiático sofre uma concorrência interna do próprio mercado europeu que age como fator balanceador, quase como um vilão.euro2

Outro fato, é que na ásia, de fato importa ter um preço justo e cuidado com erros, pois aqui encontram-se Heavy users e é onde o mercado chines age com seus agentes brookers, que são capazes de via local bookies fazer apostas estrondosas aproveitar erros ingênuos, além disto, os oddmakers asiáticos são mais inteligentes, acompanham de perto o mercado brasileiro e embora cometam erros, não os fazem na mesma medida dos Europeus.

Sim, o mercado asiático evoluiu, anos atrás era MUITO, MUITO, diferente! 

Não existe o certo ou o errado, existe cada modelo de mercado e mundos diferentes para o apostador, cada um deve encaixa-se no perfil que melhor se identificar, o que precisa ser entendido é como funcionam as ligações entre os dois mundos diferentes.

Espero que tenham gostado, sugestões e dúvidas ? Escrevam!

Abraço$$$!

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  • Tob disse:

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  • Biz disse:

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