A evolução do mercado e a ligação entre os mercados europeus e asiáticos.
Este artigo é quase completamente inspirado em uma frase que ouvi de um amigo neste final de semana: ” O mercado asiático está cada vez mais esperto “. De uma maneira geral, a sua afirmação é o resultado de um apanhado de coisas que me fizeram pensar em escrever um pouco de maneira mais solta e corrida sobre como se formam as odds asiáticas e passear um pouco sobre assunto.
Para começo de conversa, é preciso entender que quando falamos de mercado asiático, estamos englobando casas como Sbobet, 188Bet, IBC, ISN, Singbet e outras tantas chinesas, mas também estamos de alguma forma colocando neste meio a Pinnacle que apesar de não ser asiática, é uma gigante em termos de odds e limites, e que nos faz coloca-la no mesmo patamar.
Quando estamos falando de européias, falamos de Bet365, Sportingbet, Bwin, Betfair e outras Sportsbooks mais amadoras no sentido punter.
Alguns clientes, amigos e curiosos já me fizeram várias vezes a mesma pergunta: “Qual a relação entre as casas Europeias e as casas asiáticas em termos de odds, e porque as asiáticas abrem as apostas normalmente bastante tempo depois das Européias ?”
Para entender a ligação entre as odds destes 2 mundos, é preciso entender as características principais de cada um dos dois cenários, de uma forma didática vamos separar no seguinte modo:
Europeias: Normalmente casas para iniciantes, apostadores que procuram bônus e uma variedade de mercado como HT/FT, Ambas equipes Marcam, Time A para não levar gols, Cantos e outros tantos mercados. Normalmente são casas amadoras, que limitam os seus apostadores caso eles consigam levar vantagem (Lucro), comprovado sobre estes bookies, Algumas oferecem opções como Cashouts, o que é muito bem visto pelos brasileiros, e no geral, todas elas possuem odds MUITO MENORESque as casas asiáticas. São casas que limitam normalmente em até 200, 300, 400 USD a aposta nos eventos brasileiros. São conhecidas por aceitar a opção de pagamento via transferência bancária, pois muitos brasileiros (normalmente iniciantes), não possuem uma carteira virtual como Skrill ou Neteller.
Em resumo, podemos taxar estas casas como boas opções para quem tem uma banca modesta, aposta com variedade de mercados mas não se preocupa em ter melhores odds ao longo prazo (O que é errado, mas é tema para outra discussão).
Asiáticas: Ao contrário do que muitos pensam, não é apenas um lugar para quem tem muito dinheiro a apostar. As casas asiáticas (Leia-se também a Pinnacle), são casas mais profissionais, não se importam em oferecer bônus aos seus clientes (embora de uns tempos para cá, algumas tenham entrado neste modelo), 99% não permite que o seu apostador use transferência bancário, e sim trabalham com carteira virtual Skril/Neteller.As casas asiáticas ofercem odds sempre maiores em relação ao mercado Europeu, a média é de 0.3 a 0.10 ticks.
Mas agora vem a cereja do bolo: As casas asiáticas não limitam seus ganhos, não importa se você conseguiu arrancar da casa de aposta 30 mil Dólares, eles vão manter a sua conta e te deixar seguir a vida. Os limites para cada evento são MUITO maiores do que os limites impostos pelas casas europeias, em média 3x maior do que o mercado da 365 por exemplo te libera por aposta, com isto acabam tendo menos sensibilidade nas odds, isto é, menos queda a cada hit apresentado. Normalmente seus mercados são restritos a Total Lines (Over/Under) e HCP Side.
Em resumo: As casas asiáticas não se incomodam em te buscar como cliente, te dando bônus, mil mercados, mas sim em te proporcionar limites, confiança e melhores odds a longo prazo
Uma vez que entendemos as características, vamos ao mercado:
Cada um dos mundos, utilizam oddmakers diferentes para definir um determinado preço do evento, enquanto os oddmakers da Bet365, Sportingbet fazem odds com muita antecedência (3, 4, 5, dias antes do evento), os odds das chinesas lançam normalmente apostas ” Today ” ou seja, no dia do evento, e para algumas ligas grandes, apostas Early.
A diferença é que as casas como a Bet365 define para o mercado brasileiro, preços ajustados quase que totalmente em cima de estatísticas, (não vamos pensar em grandes ligas), os makers não se importam muito em ter controle sobre informações, formas e tantos detalhes, com isto as odds são feitas de forma antecipada e ajustam-se a cada rodada com o básico do importante para cada equipe. Sim, eles sabem que determinado time não contará com 2, 3, 4, jogadores, mas na maioria dos casos isto pouco influi. Usando a Copa SP como exemplo, com um pouco de pesquisa no assunto eles poderiam saber que time X tem Rank melhor que time Y, mas não merecia a odd apresentada, mas porque não fazem então ?
A resposta tem muitas vertentes e é pra lá de complexa, mas de uma maneira geral: Não compensa para a casa mudar o seu portfólio de apostas, sair do seu “enquadro” ou mudar a sua estratégia em um mercado pouco relevante e de poucos limites permitidos não é simplesmente interessante.
A Bet365 e outras europeias, ganham clientes das asiáticas e chamam atenção, justamente por permitir apostas antecipadas dias antes do evento, justamente por ter odds “desajustadas”, justamente por não importa-se com mercado brasileiro, em outras palavras eles liberam uma porção de migalhas como limite, e deixa com que os apostadores ” ajustem o preço dos jogos ” com cada um dos hits que vai moldando a linha até chegar ao seu fair line, de maneira quase automática devido a sensibilidade dos limites apresentados. Em outras palavras, entenda que uma aposta de 200 USD na Bet365 pode despencar 0.10 ticks, enquanto 200 USD em uma grande bookie, não move praticamente nada.
Para a estrategia europeia, mais vale ter limites baixos em Early games, do que limites altos no dia de jogo, pois simplesmente não é do conceito da casa, além disso, existem maneiras de se precaver dos ” profissionais que deveriam estar no mercado asiático, mas atuam no mercado europeu “, como ? “Limitando-os” Ganhe dinheiro deles e a suspensão de sua conta vai chegar, bem rapidinho.
Engana-se quem pensar que de alguma maneira a casa leva seus prejuízos trabalhando assim. Saiba que menos de 3% dos apostadores em todo o mundo levam vantagem sobre os bookies, e saiba também que o juice de cada casa é ajustado de acordo com cada entrada. As casas nunca oferecem @2 para os dois lados, e de oferecer @1.92 e @1.92 já lucram 0.08 de alguém, quando determinado hit chega ao desbalanço, move-se uma linha para o outro lado onde os próximos hits com limites diferentes farão com que a casa equilibre as contas novamente, além disto é comum diversas manobras entre os proprios bookies que apostam uns nos outros fazendo surebets ou trade interno (sim, isso ocorre, e muito!)
E finalmente, qual a relação de um mercado com outro ?
De maneira clara, a frase do meu amigo que deu início a este artigo pode ser respondida por vários modos, mas o mais resumido seria:
Hoje o apostador asiático, sofre uma concorrência de vários lados, Os preços lançados na 365 dias antes de serem lançados na asia, são severamente ajustados pelos apostadores, tornando as linhas de ” value ” para ” fair “, com isto o que você poderia ter -0.25 na asia, como valor, ao ser balanceada com os hits dias antes nas europeias, torna-se -0.5 em fair, ou seja, o apostador asiático sofre uma concorrência interna do próprio mercado europeu que age como fator balanceador, quase como um vilão.
Outro fato, é que na ásia, de fato importa ter um preço justo e cuidado com erros, pois aqui encontram-se Heavy users e é onde o mercado chines age com seus agentes brookers, que são capazes de via local bookies fazer apostas estrondosas aproveitar erros ingênuos, além disto, os oddmakers asiáticos são mais inteligentes, acompanham de perto o mercado brasileiro e embora cometam erros, não os fazem na mesma medida dos Europeus.
Sim, o mercado asiático evoluiu, anos atrás era MUITO, MUITO, diferente!
Não existe o certo ou o errado, existe cada modelo de mercado e mundos diferentes para o apostador, cada um deve encaixa-se no perfil que melhor se identificar, o que precisa ser entendido é como funcionam as ligações entre os dois mundos diferentes.
Espero que tenham gostado, sugestões e dúvidas ? Escrevam!
Abraço$$$!
74 Comentários
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SharkyScanner is an automated table selection tool for SnG (Sit and Go) players. This application can automatically find a suitable tournament and register you in it. NinjaVision lets you stay on top of every hand no matter how many tables you play. This new visual aid combines the best of both worlds by creating a hybrid solution that provides the benefits gained from tiling tables and stacking tables. Ninja Vision provides a tiled live overview of all your tables on your monitor, while the actual tables remain stacked.You can easily cycle between the stacked tables by selecting them within the Ninja Vision tiled live overview. Our poker room management software is bound to offer the solutions, which can boost your revenue generation and grab a huge count of users for the business. We deliver custom game development services across the world and help you gain personalized solutions.
After receiving her BFA from the School of the Art Institute of Chicago in 1994, Donna studied Shiatsu in Chicago from 1995-1996 at Ohashiatsu and did Reflexology training with the Ingham Method® in 1995. She graduated from the Bio-Chi Institute of Massage Therapy in June 2010. Hahaha! Yes, a Chinese massage is pretty painful. The first few “foot massages” I got I really didn’t enjoy because I was scared embarrassed to speak up and tell them to take it easier. I finally realized that I’ll never see these people again. And “aaaaauuuaaaa” is pretty universal. I can communicate that even without speaking Chinese рџ™‚ Swedish massage and deep tissue massage are two popular forms of massage therapy. Read on to learn about their differences and intended uses.
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Like the shaved hairstyles with the patterns? Then you will love this next pick. For this look the hair is shaved, has a trendy pattern and is short and curly on the top. Hair like this is for the women who want a no fuss hairstyle that expresses their own unique style and personality. You can recreate the hair with any pattern. Perfect for lazy girls or simply anyone who enjoys volume, just part your hair down the middle and use your fingers or a wide tooth come to fluffy out your hair. You can go further by laying your baby hairs with gel but the look is already great without it. Elizabeth Anderson 50. Timeless Short Stacked Bob. This sophisticated hairstyle is always a go-to and will look great on all face shapes and hair types! The flat twists updo is an enchanting style designed for all black girls with short natural hair. If you want to try out this look, here is a short tutorial on getting the best results.
IBM offers a lot of managed services in the market. They provide direct services to organizations and give support to other MSPs. To enhance the existing skills of IT professionals, they also offer training programs. IBM, with its many business units, delivers the EDR, EDR security, management, and global presence needed to improve one’s IT environment. More than just an email service provider, Hubspot is a full-blown CRM that also helps manage social media, lead generation, and content. As the original and self-proclaimed “Inbound Marketing Platform,” HubSpot helps marketers both create demand through content and nurture leads through email campaigns. HubSpot is known for being easy to use and navigate and, as such, is appropriate for large and small businesses alike. However, the pricing model is dependent on the total number of contacts in your database, so it becomes cost-prohibitive for very large-scale businesses.
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Use UI elements that are designed for touch gestures to make interaction with your app feel easy and natural. In addition to being a mobile app design company, ScienceSoft is a full-fledged software development vendor. Our staff has deep and extensive industrial knowledge that lets us cater to each project individually while understanding general business needs and user expectations. Requirements and specifications we create in close collaboration with your SMEs are the basis of our mobile app designs. In the case of travel app development services, for example, the calendar should support booking and travel planning functionality. Healthcare apps often have calendars that allow users to mark specific parameters to monitor health conditions. In other words, the design of such screens is always tied to the purpose of their use and the value that the application offers.
Get top research & news headlines four days a week. Sign up for free newsletters and get more CNBC delivered to your inbox The rise of AI fake news is creating a ‘misinformation superspreader’ The top stories in the NFL, from Jacob Robinson with Dianna Russini. Donald Trump with Bill Barr in the Cabinet Room of the White House in 2020 The default screen on this app shows you the Top Stories, and additionally, you can also watch news videos in the Video tab. However, if you want to follow specific topics or discover new ones, tap on the + icon in the top-right corner to read news related to those specific topics. usatodayUSA TODAY and USATODAY reach a combined seven million readers daily. USA TODAY is a leader in mobile applications with more than 21 million downloads on mobile devices. USA TODAY is owned by Gannett Co., Inc.
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There were no significant gender differences in social media use with 76% of students having visited MySpace in the last month compared to only 37% of students who visited Facebook. Farmville and Mafia Wars were the most popular online games. Other popular sites mentioned were Tumblr and YouTube. Social Networking Services (SNS), if used well, can do wonders for humanity, but if misused, they can also create issues. Excess use of Social Sites has created a wide online network, but at the same time, it has reduced the personal touch of people. It has created a delusionary world that only looks appealing but can have devastating impacts on coming generations if not used correctly. Availability and preferences of SNSs vary across countries. Facebook is the top worldwide yet, in some countries, such as Indonesia, Instagram has taken its place, and some African territories prefer LinkedIn . In China, where some SNSs are not available, QZone is the top social network. VKontakte and Odnoklassniki, which are both controlled by Russia’s Mail.Ru group, have also gained ground in Russian territories .
21 matches will be played during the two-week period, “with each team playing a minimum of three matches and a maximum of five,” said BCCI, in a news release. The reason behind not announcing the complete tournament schedule are the upcoming general elections that will be held in phases from April 19 to June 1. No notifications ESPNcricinfo’s writers pick their favourite balls of IPL 2024 21 matches will be played during the two-week period, “with each team playing a minimum of three matches and a maximum of five,” said BCCI, in a news release. The reason behind not announcing the complete tournament schedule are the upcoming general elections that will be held in phases from April 19 to June 1. After being sent in to bat, SRH scored 175 for nine, powered by Heinrich Klaasen’s 34-ball 50 and valuable contributions from Travis Head (34) and Rahul Tripathi (37). In response, RR could only muster 139 for 7 in their 20 overs, with Yashasvi Jaiswal (42) and Dhruv Jurel (56 not out) leading the effort.
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May 2, 2024 Colombian President Gustavo Petro said Tuesday that hundreds of thousands of pieces of ammunition have gone missing from two military bases in the South American country. Up until at least 2019, the Business version also allowed you to get the entire news article. The documentation is not clear whether this is still the case. The new Google News replaces Google Play Newsstand on mobile and desktop as well as the Google News & Weather app on mobile. It is available for Android, iOS, and web starting today, and it will be rolling out to 127 countries by next week. Americans commemorate Memorial Day and the sacrifices of our military in many different ways from ceremonies to spending time together. An official website of the United States government Hundreds of fake websites are selling counterfeit weight loss drugs like Wegovy and Ozempic. Here’s how experts say you can tell if an online pharmacy…
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The cost of the action, as well as the overall ad efficiency, depends on how relevant your products are, how well your potential customers interact with them and on how much competition you’ve got. Google and Facebook work based on the principles of ad auction – this means that a few ads “compete” to appear in each web advertising spot, and the best, most relevant ad wins. Google Data Studio has a free connector for Google Ads. You only need to the Google Data Studio connector gallery and connect from there. Also read: Installing Google Data Studio templates: Google Ads Google associates you with interest and demographic categories based on the types of websites you visit in the Google Display Network. Google scans the pages you visit to understand the content and interests associated with that site. For example, if you visit a softball-related site in the Google Display Network, Google will add a softball preference to your cookie. Then, as you visit other websites that are part of the Google Display Network, Google may continue to show you ads related to softball, such as softball game tickets or softball equipment.