
Como Analisar uma Partida de CS:GO?
Agora que vocês já sabem basicamente como funciona o jogo, vamos explicar o método que usamos para encontrar alguma aposta de valor em uma partida de CS:GO. Nesse artigo falaremos como nossa análise é feita e aonde encontramos dados sobre os times.
Analisando o histórico da partida de CS:GO
Analisando o confronto entre Endpoint e HAVU que aconteceu no dia 05/06, é possível notar todo favoritismo pro time da HAVU.
Antes de tudo, é necessário que se analise o histórico dos times que se enfrentarão. Essa informação você tem acesso no site HLTV.ORG. Na página da partida irá aparecer os últimos resultados de ambos os times, além de possíveis confrontos diretos que já ocorreram.
Uma das coisas mais importantes em partidas de CS:GO é o confronto direto, também conhecido como Head to Head. Essa estatística demonstra como um time se comporta contra o outro. O momento dos times pode ser muito diferente (vindo de muitas derrotas/vitórias), mas, quando se determinados times se enfrentam isso não pode ser levado tanto em consideração. Se são adversários muito antigos, é provável que o jogo seja bastante pegado. O CS:GO é muito dinâmico, mas quando você conhece seu adversário há muito tempo o seu trabalho, por mais que a fase seja ruim, é facilitado.
Map Pool
Analisando o jogo entre North e Gambit Youngsters é possível ver que o Map Pool do time da Gambit é mais vasto que o da North. Porém é necessário se atentar ao fato que a North joga contra times de tier superior aos adversários da Gambit.
Aqui você analisa os melhores mapas de cada time. Dependendo do confronto, é possível prever os mapas que cada time jogará, e, assim, analisar a probabilidade de vitória de cada um. Como existem 7 mapas ativos atualmente no cenário competitivo, os times normalmente tem mapas mais fortes e mais fracos. Essa é a hora de ver se os times tem alguma vantagem nesse quesito.
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Assim, você pode pensar em apostas de Handicap Asiático (-1.5 ou +1.5) e de resultado correto, já que poderá, de certa forma, prever quais mapas os times vão jogar. As informações sobre map pool estão disponíveis também no HLTV.ORG. O site mostra a porcentagem de vitória de cada time nos mapas. Porém, é importante destacar que a porcentagem de vitória nem sempre significa que o time é bom ou ruim no mapa. É sempre bom olhar os resultados recentes, já que ele pode ter feito bons jogos contra times melhores.
Conferindo se há desfalques
Como o mundo do CS:GO é muito dinâmico, as vezes há mudanças de jogadores em cima da hora. É muito importante conferir se o time irá jogar completo, e, se não, quem vai ser o jogador substituto. Normalmente, quando um time joga desfalcado, ele apresentará uma pior performance (é comum que o técnico jogue no lugar do jogador ausente). Porém, pode acontecer de o jogador substituto seja de uma equipe melhor, um jogador muito melhor que seus adversários, o que fará bastante diferença no momento do jogo. Por isso é sempre importante conferir no HLTV.ORG quem irá jogar. É bom também olhar o twitter das organizações/jogadores, só pra ter mais certeza.
Motivação
Por fim, é muito importante conferir a motivação do time para jogar o jogo em questão. É bom sempre olhar se é uma partida de eliminação ou mesmo uma partida de lower/upper bracket. Muitas vezes os maiores times decepcionam em campeonatos menores por não jogar com “força total”. É muito comum no cenário do CSGO que os times subestimem seus oponentes. É sempre bom conferir a tabela do campeonato no HLTV.ORG ou na Liquipedia assim tendo certeza da motivação que o time vai para o confronto.
Agora que você aprendeu a partida de CS:GO, confira o que mais já rolou por aqui.
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