
Qual é a importância do Win Rate?
Quando falamos de estatísticas, temos que levar em consideração que todo tipster possui o seu próprio modo de trabalhar e cada um tem um perfil diferente, existem os mais agressivos e os mais cautelosos, assim como existem aqueles que seguem sempre uma média.
Existe uma regra para trabalhar ?
Não, a única regra a seguir é que o importante é ganhar dinheiro, se você consegue e fazer isto, pouco importa se prefere optar sempre por odds altas, baixas ou seguir a maré na média, o importante aqui é falar um pouco sobre esta estatística e como doma-la.
A tradução de WIN RATE, é a taxa de vitória ou a famosa taxa de acertos, isso quer dizer de maneira clara que quanto mais você acerta mais sobe a sua WinRate, e aqui não estamos falando das odds, estamos falando simplesmente de numero de jogos vs numero de acertos.
O grande problema é que se você tem uma WIN RATE muito alta, mas escolhe opções de odds ridículas como 1.20, 1.30 dificlmente terá sucesso pois a cada lost, você precisará acertar 5 apostas em @1.20 para estar zerado já que 0.20+0.20+0.20+0.20+0.20 é igual a 1 unidade.
Já uma pessoa que opta por odds de 1.50, precisa ganhar duas apostas para cada uma perdida, e uma pessoa que opta por odds de @2 significa que a cada aposta perdida, uma outra ganha deve ser feita para sair ” zerado “
O grande lance aqui, é entender qual estratégia que você segue, alguns esportes como cavalos por exemplo possuem odds media de 6, 7, 8 pois obviamente são mais difíceis de acertar, já o futebol possui odds profissionais médias de 1.80 a 2.20, porém não está proibido optar por 1.80 ou menores ou 2.20 ou maiores, tudo vai de acordo com cada jogo e pelo valor obtido em cada uma delas, vamos dar exemplos:
Se você tem na mão um -0.5 com odds de 1.90 e pode optar pelo -0.75 com 2.15 sabendo que este jogo é propenso a over e que o cenário analisado é de uma vitória confortável, ou em outras palavras que no seu fair, o value é para uma linha que seria -1, você estaria correto em arriscar o -0.75 com mais odds, se está confiante que a odd que possui em mãos é de valor. Colocar no bolso 0.90 units em relação a 1.15 units (comparando ambos possíveis profits) é o diferencial mais pra frente, essa seria a escolha de profissional.
Já o amador, faria a escolha neste mesmo time, mas em odds como @1.35 para o DNB e assim em caso de um erro, precisaria de quase 3 escolhas como essa para recuperar.
Entender o seu perfil e conhecer o momento do campeonato também vai de encontro a uma possível mudança de estratégia no decorrer do jogo, se o campeonato que você trabalha encontra-se em momento imprevisível, mudar as escolhas para odds maiores e diminuir o número de unidades apostadas é uma boa tática.
Colocar mais unidades e optar por odds um pouco menores em campeonatos que seguem um curso lógico, é outra boa tática a ser seguida.
O importante é somar, e saber que para ganhar é necessário sempre estudar as suas características e ir moldando sempre seus rumos.
Boa sorte nas escolhas!
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