Precificação de over/under rounds - Casa do Apostador
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Precificação de over/under rounds
qua 09 mar/22

Precificação de over/under rounds


Os dois mercados principais das apostas em MMA são o MoneyLine (Vitória) e o over/under rounds. O MoneyLine é o mercado mais utilizado, mas com o passar do tempo temos encontrado odds cada vez mais justas, então a saída para ter maior volume foi concentrar em um método para over/under rounds.

É importante lembrar da importância da precificação, pois não estamos tentando adivinhar um evento, mas sim buscando +EV, ou seja, odds desajustadas. Como fazemos isso? Calculando as probabilidades de um evento acontecer.

No over/under gols no futebol utilizamos média de gols, xG, entre outras métricas para fazer essa precificação, mas analisamos isso para as duas equipes. E no MMA? Levou um tempo para encontrar um modelo ideal para mim (que pode não ser o ideal para outros apostadores), e vou falar um pouco sobre como faço essa precificação. 

Para começar, é importante ter em mãos as probabilidades de vitória de cada lutador. Se calcularmos as probabilidades de um lutador super favorito que tende a levar as suas lutas para a decisão contra um underdog que finaliza todas as suas lutas usando métricas do futebol, teremos um resultado enviesado.

Tendo as probabilidades de cada lutador em mãos, passamos a analisar a frequência em que suas vitórias terminam por decisão, por nocaute ou por finalização. No meu modelo, incluo as derrotas por decisão junto das vitórias, pois também foram lutas em que o lutador não teve capacidade de finalizar o adversário. Também levo em consideração o número de vezes em que ele foi nocauteado ou finalizado, casando com o número de nocautes e finalizações do adversário. Por último, tenho em mãos o número de vezes que cada lutador acabou com uma luta no 1º round.

A partir daí dou peso 2 aos nocautes e finalizações conquistados e peso 1 para os sofridos. Com isso conseguimos precificar as chances de cada lutador terminar a luta, não só de sua vitória! 

Como determinar as linhas justas?

Para termos ainda maior margem de segurança, para linhas de 1.5 rounds considero “under” apenas lutas terminadas no primeiro round, apesar de lutas que terminaram antes da metade do 2º round também valer para este under. Já nas linhas de 2.5 rounds, precifico o over como se fossem lutas indo para a decisão, já que também obtemos vantagem de meio round.

Conclusão após o método validado

No artigo anterior ressaltei que geralmente o valor está no over rounds pois as lutas têm durado mais com o passar dos anos, e que não tinha feito nenhuma aposta de under. O cenário mudou e no último evento fiz o under 1.5 rounds com odds de 2.30 na luta entre Calrston Harris e Shavkat Rakhmonov. Rakhmonov nocauteou no 1º round e o green veio. Como cheguei ao valor nessa aposta? Bem, Rakhmonov era franco favorito e finalizou todas as suas lutas, enquanto Harris havia finalizado suas duas lutas no UFC ainda no 1º round. Era um cenário muito bom para que a luta se encerrasse rapidamente, independente do vencedor.

O mercado de over/under rounds tem variância alta, podemos citar como exemplo o último UFC de 2021 em que apenas uma luta foi para a decisão, então é importante seguir o método e realizar uma gestão de banca correta, além de fortalecer seu mindset para passar por momentos negativos!

 O método de vitória 

Se temos a probabilidade de vitória de cada lutador, além de sua probabilidade de encerrar a luta antes da decisão, temos também a probabilidade de vitória por decisão, nocaute ou finalização. Então possuindo um método para MoneyLine e um método de over/under consequentemente temos um método para o tipo de vitória!

Como já falamos aqui, é um mercado mais arriscado mas que também costuma nos trazer maiores odds, então todo cuidado é pouco ao apostar no método de vitória, mas não devemos abandoná-lo. Vale lembrar que quanto maior for sua odd média, maior a variância! 

QUAIS MÉTODOS UM APOSTADOR PRECISA ESTUDAR? 

Esse é um assunto que eu falo muito com meus seguidores, afinal é a base para o investimento esportivo. Por isso, eu separei aqui abaixo alguns conteúdos para você começar a estudar sobre métodos para as apostas esportivas. 

Faça como os 3% dos apostadores lucrativos e comece a se especializar agora mesmo. Por isso, faça parte do meu grupo exclusivo para receber conteúdos de apostas esportivas profissionais. 

 

Escrito por Raphael Brettas

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  • Glogs disse:

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  • Glogs disse:

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