Análise da Luta: Jones x Aspinall
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Jones x Aspinall
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Jones x Aspinall


Vou antecipar, já antecipando a fala de parte dos nossos leitores:

 “Lá vem ele super estimar o lutador”.

Bom, é meu papel analisar. Sou analista de desempenho, auxilio equipes de treinadores há 8 anos no UFC. É natural e espontâneo que possua essa característica.

Um desses acertos provavelmente tenha sido responsável por estar aqui hoje contribuindo e compartilhando este conhecimento com vocês. Há 8, 9 anos atrás, saia do papel meu primeiro scouting.

  • O começo

Há 9 anos, como jornalista, cobria alguns atletas de MMA, em paralelo, sempre gostei de escrever crônicas: de futebol, MMA, sobre o cotidiano. Um destes, na verdade, alguns destes textos despertaram o interesse para uma atleta, a Erica Paes, que naquela época havia sido a única derrota para a Cris Cyborg e estava em sua preparação para enfrentar uma atleta, até então desconhecida: Holly Holm.

Elas iriam se enfrentar pelo Legacy em 2013. Holly Holm tinha apenas 4 lutas na carreira, sua estréia no UFC seria quase dois anos depois em fevereiro de 2015 contra Raquel Pennington no UFC 184 (olha quanto tempo!).

  • Meu primeiro trabalho como scouting

Paes era uma amiga próxima, nos falávamos bastante, e em um final de semana, a caminho de uma conferência, ela me diz o seguinte:

  • “amigo, eu vou enfrentar uma tal de Holly Holm. Gosto das suas análises, você escreve bem. Participa deste camp, será parte da minha equipe. Olha o que a Carina Dan me mandou”?

Foi o que me encorajou. A dica tinha 2 linhas, com uma escrita toda truncada, provavelmente escrita as pressas. Quando olhei aquilo pensei…”Posso fazer melhor”!

Sempre que me comprometo a fazer alguma coisa faço um trabalho de imersão profundo, me interno no quarto, escrevo por horas e horas a fio. É assim até hoje, como nas análises com os atletas e agora com as apostas: eu não paro. E foi desta forma que desenvolvi aquele que seria o meu primeiro trabalho.

  • Primeira imersão

Catei tudo da vida da Holm, todos os vídeos da carreira: do boxe ao MMA. Tudo que tinha de brecha e ponto forte ia abrindo tópico, copiando link e colando no Word. Desta pesquisa resultaram 9 laudas de pura análise textual, sem números. Completamente diferente do que faço nos dias de hoje.

Mando para a caixa de e – mail da Erica. Sua amiga acessa o e – mail e na mesma hora diz para a Erica:

  •  “Se fosse você, leria o texto do Cleber. Nunca vi uma análise daquele tamanho. Está muito bom!”
  • Holm antes do UFC: premonição?!

Bem, como se sabe, elas não lutaram. Erica estava com problema no joelho  sugeri que adiasse a luta. Eu fui direto e reto com ela por telefone (creio que o zap nem existia):

  •  Erica, querem te fazer de escada. Estão preparando essa menina para tirar o título da Ronda.

Encerrei dizendo:

  • Holm tem muito volume, combina muitos golpes retos e chuta bastante. O seu único golpe com poder de nocaute é o seu chute alto de esquerda.

Nem preciso lembrar a vocês que este foi o chute que mudou a carreira da Holm para sempre no maior evento do mundo.

  • Outras previsões

Essa foi apenas a primeira de tantas outras. Minha última previsão foi antes de pegar o camp da Makenzie Dern, numa conversa de zap com o Camões.

Em dezembro, quando trabalhávamos no camp do Warlley, Rogério Camões me sondou para saber sobre o que achava da Makenzie, pois estavam conversando e ele me queria junto da equipe. Na mesma hora, olhei o ranking e disse:

  •  das top 10, a única que vejo com posição trocada é a Nina (era a top 5). Ela não merece figurar entre as 5, ta no hype da Amanda.

Coincidência ou não, uma semana depois o contrato estava sendo firmado com contra a Nina e o resultado da luta vocês todos sabem.

  • Aspinall

Dito isso, porque vejo Tom Aspinal com cacife para bater Jon Jones? Por uma série de fatores, a primeira de todas: o peso da mão dos pesados é muito diferente da dos meio pesados. Jon Jones migrou de divisão numa época em que a divisão está numa crescente evolução e com atletas pesados muito talentosos, Aspinall, Gane, Miocic, Ngannou, entre outros bons prospectos.

Tom Aspinal é um atleta dos pesos pesados “leve”, bate na balança 112 kg. Este deve ser o peso que Jones irá bater nos pesados, entre 109 a 112 kg. Porém, este não será o peso, digamos, natural de Jones. Não se ganha 15 kg de massa muscular de 1 ano para o outro, impossível. Sendo assim, se prepare para ver um Jones com menos poder de K.O ainda e mais lento. Do outro lado, Aspinal é um striker que flutua no cage, como Cyril gane. Bate muito forte, tanto que não foi a 3 rounds com nenhum atleta até hoje.

  • Defesa de quedas de Aspinall

Além disso, Aspinal tem, 100% de defesa de quedas pelo UFC Stats. Ok… é o Jon Jones. Mas, não nos esqueçamos que Jones não colocou para baixo Dominick Reyes nos meio pesados. Ou seja, a dificuldade para executar o wrestling será muito maior, uma vez que estará mais lento, pesado e “fraco”, e enfrentará um atleta que é natural do peso, leve, seguramente mais forte e explosivo.

Jon Jones sabe disso, pois ele é um estudioso da luta. Ele quer vencer o Ngannou, que não será tarefa fácil. E…aposentar. Certamente este será seu último ato para se pendurar as luvas como o maior atleta de todos os tempos (ele já o é) do UFC. Vencendo, fará mais uma revanche, quem sabe uma trilogia e, com alguns milhões a mais no bolso, sabiamente a-po-sen-ta-rá.

Podem me cobrar. Na verdade, continuem cobrando.

Até!

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