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Over e Under no UFC
É meus amigos, estamos diante de mais uma semana com mais um evento do UFC: Hall x Strickland. Como atuo especificamente com este evento, nem toda semana temos boas oportunidades de apostas em MoneyLine (vitória simples), justamente por conta do casamento das lutas, nem sempre lucrativas, ou seja, equilibradas ou, desajustadas.
Semana cheia
Costumo avaliar minhas dicas por semana e tenho notado que existem semanas “cheias”, seja de linha de vitória, seja de mercado de over e under, geralmente isso ocorre em UFC numerado, que costuma aparecer 1 vez por mês. Nas semanas seguintes, os mercados oscilam, mas costumam ficar mais escassos de boas escolhas, principalmente de moneyline.
Over e Under
Neste caso, o mercado de over e under aparece como uma excelente alternativa para cobrir o vácuo deixado nas linhas de vitória.
Over e under, não necessariamente, pode se dizer que se trata de um mercado mais difícil. Depende muito. Muitas das vezes, o casamento de lutas, apesar de ter valor (+EV), as lutas são tão equilibradas que, exemplificando, a depender da “sorte”, é como se você jogasse uma torrada para cima com uma raspa de manteiga e ter a desagradável e óbvia experiência de ver “sempre” o lado da manteiga (0,05 mais pesada) virado para baixo.
Como “calcular” este mercado?
Lógico que o exemplo é um tanto exagerado, contudo, o mercado de over e under muitas das vezes pode ser tornar uma alternativa bastante lucrativa. A primeira coisa que devemos observar, sempre no mercado de over e under é, se os atletas destacados costumam levar as suas lutas, com uma boa frequência para os pontos ou se são finalizadores e devemos nos perguntar a razão disto. Normalmente atletas com cartel muito cheio de vitorias e derrotas por pontos, o over 2,5 torn-se uma opção interessante, desde que o adversário, neste casamento, se encaixe com as mesmas características. Uma vez que, não adianta apostar num over 2,5 na categoria dos leves quando o adversário é um russo e do Daguestão, por razões obvias: Khabib e cia que o digam.
Brincadeiras a parte, o mais importante é o casamento, independente se o atleta é mais propenso a levar a luta por pontos ou finalização, quer um exemplo?
Over (2,5) – Francisco Figueiredo x Malcolm Gordon
Francisco Figueiredo x Malcom Gordon, esta luta tinha tudo para ser um under 2,5 e decidi apostar no over:
Vamos a análise, depois a pick.
Francisco Figueiredo – possui um cartel com 83% de vitórias por finalização ou nocaute, apenas 17% terminaram por pontos. Malcom Gordon não foi diferente, 77% de suas lutas encerraram por via rápida, acrescentando que 80% de suas derrotas (4) foram por nocaute. Então, por qual razão resolvi apostar numa luta por pontos?
Por uma razão simples, as lutas vencidas por KO pelo brasileiro foram fora do UFC e com um percentual de derrotas por KO alta e vitorias baixa; em contra partida, Malcolm foi derrotado por atletas duros no UFC e com um índice de KOs alto, assim como, atletas de uma categoria acima (60kg).
Alem disso, a média de golpes de Figueiredo é baixa: 1.90 e índice de acertos de 58%, ou seja, pouco mais de 1 golpe por min, segundo UFC stats.
Acresce o estilo, Figueiredo luta cadenciado, na longa e chutava muito, sem muita contundência e um golpe matador.
E o grappling?
Então, ambos tinham um índice alto de finalização (7×1) para o brasileiro e (6×1) para Malcolm, ou seja, ambas as valências mais fortes entre eles se anulavam, o que determinou a minha pick para o encerramento por pontos, o que acabou acontecendo. Ex.:
Evento: UFC: Makhachev x Moisés
Card Principal: Francisco Figueiredo x Malcolm
Data/Hora: 18/7 ás 1h
Aposta: Over 2.5
Odds: @2.150
Bookie: Pinnacle
Odds mínimas: 1.98
Unidade: 1
Categoria: (peso – mosca)
Favoritismo: 55% (1.82)
Pick
São dois atletas técnicos que não machucam. Figueiredo teve vitória tranqüila em sua estréia contra Rivera, foi melhor em pé e no chão, mas em momento algum ameaçou, seja de nocaute um atleta com cartel 0 x 3 KOs contra e de finalização, mesmo dominando nas quedas e estando por cima todo o tempo. Figueiredo chuta bastante e não solta tanto a mão. Para projetar as quedas busca o clinche na curta e utiliza muito os bodylocks. Tem um time bom de entrada de quedas, porém, não é um atleta decisivo.
Malcolm é um atleta de trocação razoável, defende bem os golpes no rosto, mas é um atleta frágil contra atletas mais agressivos, é o famoso escada. Não terá vida longa no UFC. Porém, as duas derrotas dentro do evento vieram contra atletas de ótimo nível, Amir Abasi, striker (4 x 0) e finalizador (8 x 0), e apenas uma derrota por decisão; Su Mudaerj, um tibetano com 11 KOs e nenhum contra. Antes desta luta só fora nocauteado em 2016 e nenhuma finalização contra.
Acredito que a luta deve desenrolar mais no clinche, na grade e no chão, com o Figueiredo dominando as ações ofensivas, com uma queda de ritmo na luta no 3R.
Cheiro de luta por pontos.
Agora que você terminou de ler este artigo, eu convido você a consumir outros materiais gratuitos sobre apostas esportivas. Eu tenho certeza que tudo isso será fundamental para seu sucesso.
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Faça como os 3% dos apostadores lucrativos e comece a se especializar agora mesmo. Por isso, faça parte do meu grupo exclusivo para receber conteúdos de apostas esportivas profissionais.
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