Devo apostar em Fairline 50%?
Olha, essa é uma ótima pergunta. Jogar ou não jogar numa oportunidade com precificação avaliada em 50% (pau a pau)? Depende… Depende muito.
Este é um estudo que ainda estou desenvolvendo com a equipe Aposta de Valor e venho sendo muito bem assessorado pelo Rafael, Lucas e Jean, profissionais com larga experiencia em apostas esportivas com pelo menos 8, 10 anos de estrada entre os profissionais.
A maioria de vocês devem saber, mas vamos explicar o que seria uma avaliação 50%, seja nas apostas, seja nas valências de MMA (pontos fortes e fracos).
Nas apostas
50% corresponde a uma odd @2.00, que no MMA podemos considerar uma odd razoável para alta. Então, parte-se do princípio que qualquer valor abaixo de 2.00 não se deve apostar, por mais que o sarrafo para as bets lucrativas seja acima de 1.72. Uma vez que, se temos uma precificação de 50% em 2.00, qualquer valor abaixo deste, estamos entregando o valor (dinheiro) a casa de apostas.
Sendo assim, para apostar numa Fair line 50% em MMA, só jogo pick cujo casamento de lutas esteja um dos atletas acima de @3.00, e mesmo assim, com ressalvas. Não costumo apostar Fair Line 50%. Considero um risco. Porém, estamos avaliando alternativas, com a equipe, buscando validar um método que a longo prazo seja possível este tipo de investimento.
No MMA, o que seria uma luta 50%?
Já fizemos aqui uma série explicando sobre a construção de uma Fair Line em 3 partes. A primeira fiz parte técnica e tática; a segunda, dei ênfase na resistência, absorção de golpes e preparação física; a última, falei sobre os detalhes que antecedem a luta, tais como: confronto, pesagem, experiencia de luta, tempo afastado, posição no ranking, doping, etc.
Pois bem, então como achar um atleta 50%? É bem simples, embora seja complexo. Este valor se dá geralmente no confronto entre atletas equiparados, não necessariamente iguais. Por exemplo:
Você tem um striker como o Ngannou e um grappler como Jon Jones, vamos fazer uma simulação abreviada (valor mín: 0 e Max: 5) entre cada valência: só para efeito de comparação, sem estudo prévio.
- Poder de nocaute: Ngannou 5. Jon Jones 3
- Queixo: Jon Jones 5. Ngannou 3.5
- Gás: Jon Jones 5. Ngannou 3
- Volume de golpes; Jon Jones 5. Ngannou 2.5
- Força: Ngannou 5. Jones 2.5
- Explosão: Ngannou 5. Jones 3. 5
Temos um empate técnico
- 5: 3×3
- 3.5: 1×1
- 3; 1×1
- 2.5: 1×1
No site de apostas Pinnacle existe uma simulação de uma possível luta entre Jones x Ngannou no dia 31 de dezembro, Ngannou está em @1.57 e Jones é o Underdog@2.5
Vimos, no exemplo retro, que está seria uma luta 50%, em tese. Pelo que disse anteriormente, não costumo apostar numa luta de 50%, mesmo que a odd esteja em 3. Mas, Jon Jones?
Aí, é diferente. Mesmo vindo de uma categoria abaixo, e sabendo que a diferença de força é brutal, Jones está numa prateleira seletíssima de lutadores que em seu auge não sentem (até que se prove o contrario) tanto a mudança de categoria.
Jon Jones é o GOAT, pegou todo mundo. Enfrentou Cormier, um peso pesado de origem, e deu dois paus de arara nele. Este tipo de aposta é um RAIO, um cometa Halley, que aparecerá de tempos em tempos. Neste caso, esta é uma aposta tem valor e que faria sem medo.
Jon Jones, Khabib, Chimaev, Conor (mesmo com as derrotas), são atletas que entram como favoritos mesmo diante de atletas de uma outra categoria e visivelmente mais fortes. O Mindset de um campeão extraordinário conta. Conta muito na hora de uma luta.
Não coloco esta categoria na minha fair line, justamente por não ser muito usual. Mas jogo lá duas outras: card principal e main event. Pois, tem atletas extraordinários que quando fazem o card principal ou, principalmente, a luta da noite, encolhem substancialmente.
Por isso, se não houver uma disparidade muito grande entre categorias e de idade (+ de 43 – Randy Culture e Dan Henderson lutaram até os 46 em alta performance), nunca se despreze a capacidade de um campeão. Ele tem peso, muito peso.
Estude mais sobre as apostas esportivas
- Encontrando linhas desajustadas.
- Como escolher um campeonato para apostar?
- A existência das Fairlines.
- Palestra Danilo Pereira – Sistema de Fair Lines – Parte 1 (BetMasters)
- Palestra Danilo Pereira – Sistema de Fair Lines Parte 2 (BetMasters)
- 5 Mentiras sobre as apostas
Inscreva-se na minha lista VIP para receber conteúdos de apostas profissionais exclusivos.
Além disso, me acompanhe também no Instagram.
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