Existe sorte nas apostas esportivas?
Que a sorte acompanha o vencedor é algo muito famoso, todos também já ouviram que goleiro bom é goleiro que tem sorte mas nas apostas esportivas, vencer está ligado diretamente a sorte ? Quando perder uma aposta pode considerar que está com azar ? Vamos entender um pouco mais sobre isso.
Para falarmos sobre este tema é necessário separar a resposta em duas partes, primeiro devemos analisar o curto prazo e depois analisar o longo prazo, são dois coisas importantíssimas e especialmente distintas no mundo que vivemos, ainda que estejamos falando diretamente de apostas esportivas, mas que também podemos trazer para o mundo real e aplicar em diversas situações.
Falando de apostas a resposta para a pergunta do título é: A sorte só existe no curto prazo, e NUNCA existirá no longo prazo, explico:
Existem várias maneiras de explicar mas vamos exemplificar para que fique sempre mais fácil de entender:
Imagine que você é um apostador experiente, e que seu amigo não seja se quer um apostador, simplesmente que ele seja alguém que goste de apostas esportivas mas que não entende do assunto, que está apenas aprendendo.
Digamos que vocês façam 10 apostas em 10 jogos diferentes na primeira rodada do campeonato paulista (uma aposta por jogo), e que no final da rodada comparem os resultados obtidos:
O mais comum neste caso seria que você tivesse um acerto geral maior que o seu amigo, pois você é experiente e sabe trabalhar com isto, porém digamos que o resultado obtido seja de: 3 acertos para você que é experiente e 7 acertos para o seu amigo que não conhece nada sobre apostas, neste caso o que houve ?
Sorte, em uma amostragem curta, é normal acontecer isto, o fator sorte pode ter batido na porta do seu amigo e fez com que ele quase que aleatoriamente escolhendo resultados (já que não conhece de apostas) acertasse 70% dos jogos.
Você ter acertado 30% dos jogos pode ser um pouco do fator azar, e pode ser que mesmo com o seu conhecimento, o grau de dificuldade destas partidas era muito alto, então aqui entra sim um pouco do fator sorte/azar.
O Curto prazo nas apostas é algo em que qualquer coisa pode acontecer, teremos uma coluna para falar especialmente sobre a diferença do curto e do longo prazo, mas o que precisa ficar claro é que quando a amostragem de algo é muito pequena e com poucos volume, tudo pode acontecer e a influência de sorte/azar existe.
Agora, imagine que você e o seu amigo, façam a mesma disputa, mas para o campeonato inteiro, digamos que o campeonato tenha 200 jogos, e que você continue sendo especialista em apostas, e seu amigo continue não entendendo nada sobre isto, e fazendo escolhas quase que aleatoriamente, qual será o resultado ?
Neste caso, não existe uma pessoa ter sorte por 20 rodadas, no final do campeonato seus números são infinitamente melhores naquilo que você faz, pois você coloca um peso em um fator muito mais importante que é a sua qualidade e por isso vem a importância de qualificar-se sempre.
Por isso quando você passar por uma BadRun ou por uma sequencia vitoriosa, sim você pode estar com Azar, ou com Sorte, mas olhando o seus números anuais, e sendo você um apostador de qualidade certamente terá o fator de habilidades tomando por você um peso muito maior e fazendo a sorte/azar desaparecer.
O volume nas apostas é importante, ter uma amostragem grande te faz qualificar os seus resultados.
Um abraço a todos!
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Changes Coming to 401(K) Retirement Catch-up Contributions As things stand, there are currently 19,746 cryptocurrencies listed on the platform. Cryptocurrency investors and analysts generally expect the share prices of most crypto stocks to rise over the long term if cryptocurrency adoption and use continues to expand globally. But this type of volatile investment may not be suitable for all investors. Marathon Digital is a digital asset technology company and one of the largest and most valuable pure-play Bitcoin mining stocks out there. In fact, given the doldrums that the cryptocurrency and blockchain industries faced throughout 2022, MARA is the only Bitcoin pure-play included on this list. This page includes historical return information for all Bitcoin ETFs listed on U.S. exchanges that are currently tracked by ETF Database.
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The design of DigiToads presale structure has undoubtedly contributed to its rapid growth. The TOADS DeFi token’s growth across the presale stages has attracted early investors by promising significant returns on investment. As the token gains momentum and broader adoption, the potential for increased buying pressure further fuels the price appreciation. This strategic approach has created a sense of urgency among investors to secure their position in the project, thereby driving demand and contributing to the weekend surge. Who accepts Shiba Inu Coin? When you use the BitPay Card, you can use Shiba Inu like cash almost everywhere you go. Instead of using a bank account, the BitPay Card pulls funds from your Shiba Inu Coin wallet. Spend SHIB online or in-store wherever Mastercard is accepted. You can even use it at ATMs to turn Shiba Inu Coin into cold hard cash. It’s as easy as 1-2-3. Get the BitPay app. Get approved for the card in minutes. Start spending SHIB anywhere.
If the government’s criminal investigations secretly relied on NSA spying, that would be a serious concern. Individuals facing criminal prosecution have a right to know how the government came by its evidence, so that they can challenge whether the government’s methods were lawful. That is a basic principle of due process. The government should not be hiding the true sources for its evidence in court by inventing a different trail. Its team told Decrypt that its latest release was the best option for privacy because it will make “privacy by default for everyone” with a fast and cheap UX. “What differentiates it is the user experience,” Adam Fiscor, co-founder of zkSNACKs, the software firm behind Wasabi Wallet, said. He added that privacy should be “frictionless and effortless” and that Wasabi does this; even a non-Bitcoiner would be able to get their head round using it.
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Ethereum or Ether can be purchased in India from cryptocurrency exchanges such as CoinDCX, WazirX or CoinSwitch Kuber. Users need to create a trading account on any of these exchanges. Ether can be purchased as per its present value in INR through the exchange. The top-performing year for Ethereum was 2017 when the price of ETH increased by 9,404.30% from $ 7.97 to $ 757.41. The worst performing year for Ethereum was 2018 when the price dropped by -82.42% from $ 757.41 to $ 133.16. The average yearly growth of Ethereum over the last 9 years is 1,350.98% per year. Usually, Ethereum performs best in Q1 with an average of 226.54% gain and worst in Q3 with -4.61% loss. The live price of Ethereum (ETH) is updated and available in real time on Binance.