Apostar a Favor ou Contra Times Reservas?
Você sabia que alguns apostadores costumam apostar de olhos fechados quando um dos times entra em campo com o time reserva? Você sabia que essa técnica é bem perigosa? Foi pensando nisso que eu decidi fazer essa matéria pra te explicar o motivo bem direitinho.
Uma vez eu li artigo no Punters Lounge que abordava uma pesquisa que calculava a probabilidade de acerto e erro de quando uma equipe jogava com um time reserva. Ou seja, a porcentagem de acerto e erro dentro dos prognósticos de uma determinada sessão daquele fórum.
Com isso, os administradores do fórum mediram se a porcentagem de acerto era maior ou menor quando algum time estava jogando com reservas. O resultado foi que mais da metade das apostas eram perdidas. E apenas 30% (em média) das apostas que envolvia um time reserva eram ganhas por parte dos apostadores daquele fórum.
Mas por qual motivo isso acontece? Muitas pessoas acabam apostando às cegas quando há uma equipe reserva envolvida. Uma coisa que você tem que saber é que no Brasil nós temos um calendário bem variado. Como no Campeonato Brasileiro. Já aconteceu muitas vezes de um time jogar sem o seu melhor jogador, pois este estava escalado para uma partida mais importante. Isso acontece muito também em época de Copa do Mundo. Quando alguns dos melhores jogadores do time estão escalados para a seleção.
Em períodos assim, é muito comum ver times do Campeonato Brasileiro jogarem com equipes reservas inteiras ou com boa parte dela. Já que é preciso dar prioridade para competições mais importantes. Fora do Brasil esse problema não acontece tanto, pois o calendário deles é mais organizado.
Apostas esportivas com times reservas
Tenha em mente que não é porque uma equipe está atuando com reservas que ela sempre será derrotada. Eu vejo que muitos apostadores possuem isso como regra e quando vê uma equipe reserva, fazem a aposta contra ela. Entenda que um time reserva não é motivo para você decidir se vai apostar contra ou a favor. Existe uma coisa (que se você acompanha o blog, já conhece) chamada Handicap. O bacana do Handicap é que ele dá uma determinada vantagem ou tira a vantagem dessa equipe. Isso quer dizer que ele vai acrescentar uma precificação que vai existir justamente por fatores como esse.
Times reservas e Handicaps esticados
Mas é claro que você também precisa avaliar outros fatores pra ver se vale a pena trabalhar com Handicaps esticados em times reservas. É necessário avaliar o adversário. Se o time vai jogar em casa, o quão preparada a equipe reserva está e quanto os jogadores principais realmente fazem falta para o time.
A realidade de um apostador esportivo profissional ou de um tipster é ter a obrigação de entender e analisar quais são esses reservas. E como os times costumam agir com reservas e sem reservas. Você não pode ser rígido e engessar uma análise somente porque os jogadores principais não estão no jogo.
Over e under dos times reservas
A equipe consegue mudar completamente a visão de over e under quando se trata de jogadores reservas. E eu vejo que muitas pessoas não prestam atenção nisso. Por exemplo, o time do Palmeiras joga de um jeito quando ele atua com time titular e joga de outro jeito quando ele atua com time reserva. Portanto, isso vai ter variação no over e under. E isso acontece com todos os outros times também.
Algumas equipes têm o seu desempenho alterado quando os jogadores titulares não estão na partida. Além disso, os treinadores mudam a formação das equipes de acordo com os jogadores que estão jogando. É por isso que você precisa entender e analisar diferentes cenários do futebol para identificar qual o valor real da aposta.
A principal recomendação da matéria dessa semana é que você não deve apostar somente porque o time está com reservas. Cabe a você, que quer ter lucro com as apostas, analisar como essa equipe deve se comportar em campo. Eu já vi muitas situações em que o apostador pega Handicaps agressivos para uma equipe reserva, quando essa equipe quer somente ganhar o jogo e não necessariamente encher o adversário de gols. São muitos fatores que fazem esse tipo de partida ser mais difícil de entender. Mas é por isso que você tem que se esforçar ainda mais para encontrar a melhor alternativa e estratégia de aposta.
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