Apostar a Favor ou Contra Times Reservas?
Você sabia que alguns apostadores costumam apostar de olhos fechados quando um dos times entra em campo com o time reserva? Você sabia que essa técnica é bem perigosa? Foi pensando nisso que eu decidi fazer essa matéria pra te explicar o motivo bem direitinho.
Uma vez eu li artigo no Punters Lounge que abordava uma pesquisa que calculava a probabilidade de acerto e erro de quando uma equipe jogava com um time reserva. Ou seja, a porcentagem de acerto e erro dentro dos prognósticos de uma determinada sessão daquele fórum.
Com isso, os administradores do fórum mediram se a porcentagem de acerto era maior ou menor quando algum time estava jogando com reservas. O resultado foi que mais da metade das apostas eram perdidas. E apenas 30% (em média) das apostas que envolvia um time reserva eram ganhas por parte dos apostadores daquele fórum.
Mas por qual motivo isso acontece? Muitas pessoas acabam apostando às cegas quando há uma equipe reserva envolvida. Uma coisa que você tem que saber é que no Brasil nós temos um calendário bem variado. Como no Campeonato Brasileiro. Já aconteceu muitas vezes de um time jogar sem o seu melhor jogador, pois este estava escalado para uma partida mais importante. Isso acontece muito também em época de Copa do Mundo. Quando alguns dos melhores jogadores do time estão escalados para a seleção.
Em períodos assim, é muito comum ver times do Campeonato Brasileiro jogarem com equipes reservas inteiras ou com boa parte dela. Já que é preciso dar prioridade para competições mais importantes. Fora do Brasil esse problema não acontece tanto, pois o calendário deles é mais organizado.
Apostas esportivas com times reservas
Tenha em mente que não é porque uma equipe está atuando com reservas que ela sempre será derrotada. Eu vejo que muitos apostadores possuem isso como regra e quando vê uma equipe reserva, fazem a aposta contra ela. Entenda que um time reserva não é motivo para você decidir se vai apostar contra ou a favor. Existe uma coisa (que se você acompanha o blog, já conhece) chamada Handicap. O bacana do Handicap é que ele dá uma determinada vantagem ou tira a vantagem dessa equipe. Isso quer dizer que ele vai acrescentar uma precificação que vai existir justamente por fatores como esse.
Times reservas e Handicaps esticados
Mas é claro que você também precisa avaliar outros fatores pra ver se vale a pena trabalhar com Handicaps esticados em times reservas. É necessário avaliar o adversário. Se o time vai jogar em casa, o quão preparada a equipe reserva está e quanto os jogadores principais realmente fazem falta para o time.
A realidade de um apostador esportivo profissional ou de um tipster é ter a obrigação de entender e analisar quais são esses reservas. E como os times costumam agir com reservas e sem reservas. Você não pode ser rígido e engessar uma análise somente porque os jogadores principais não estão no jogo.
Over e under dos times reservas
A equipe consegue mudar completamente a visão de over e under quando se trata de jogadores reservas. E eu vejo que muitas pessoas não prestam atenção nisso. Por exemplo, o time do Palmeiras joga de um jeito quando ele atua com time titular e joga de outro jeito quando ele atua com time reserva. Portanto, isso vai ter variação no over e under. E isso acontece com todos os outros times também.
Algumas equipes têm o seu desempenho alterado quando os jogadores titulares não estão na partida. Além disso, os treinadores mudam a formação das equipes de acordo com os jogadores que estão jogando. É por isso que você precisa entender e analisar diferentes cenários do futebol para identificar qual o valor real da aposta.
A principal recomendação da matéria dessa semana é que você não deve apostar somente porque o time está com reservas. Cabe a você, que quer ter lucro com as apostas, analisar como essa equipe deve se comportar em campo. Eu já vi muitas situações em que o apostador pega Handicaps agressivos para uma equipe reserva, quando essa equipe quer somente ganhar o jogo e não necessariamente encher o adversário de gols. São muitos fatores que fazem esse tipo de partida ser mais difícil de entender. Mas é por isso que você tem que se esforçar ainda mais para encontrar a melhor alternativa e estratégia de aposta.
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The Sporting News tracked live scoring updates from Lakers vs. Mavericks on Christmas Day. Check out the best highlights from James’ performance right here. The moment was captured in a single image by Garrett Ellwood, a photographer for the NBA. In it, as Gordon levitates toward the hoop and Shamet is being sent to the floor, every player seems to have a look of disbelief on their face. It was as if Gordon defied a law of physics before their eyes. Surprise, surprise: we’re backing all five favorites here with the Nuggets earning the nod in the Christmas Day finale. I’m just not sold on the Suns with the uncertain health of star Devin Booker (groin), who has surprisingly missed each of his team’s last three games. ESPN released the 25 best players suiting up on Christmas Day, which meant Stephen Curry and Anthony Davis were left off the list. Doncic ranked second behind Giannis Antetokounmpo on ESPN’s list. Christian Wood was the only other Maverick, and he finished 25th.
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Boston is the favorite to win the 2023 championship. However, the 76ers are giving everything the Celtics can handle in the second round. It also took Boston six games to beat the Atlanta Hawks in the first round. Anything can happen in this edition of the NBA postseason. Even the title favorite has been up and down. Without going back and looking at every first set of odds after an NBA Finals ends, I’d argue the new champion is usually the favorite to win again or close. At 200 1, the Spurs are now lumped with teams like the Miami Heat, Denver Nuggets, and (gulp), the Los Angeles Clippers. On the bright side, Vegas still thinks more highly of the Spurs next season than the New York Knicks. OK, so that probably won’t feel Spurs fans feel any better. Check out the odds, spread and over under for this matchup available on different sportsbooks.
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