Qual o cenário justo para determinado Handicap?
Hoje falarei de um assunto bastante importante e também um pouco pessoal. Muitos apostadores sentem dificuldade em conseguir entender em live qual é a linha justa (fair) para determinado jogo que está assistindo, ou seja, muitas vezes ao assistir um jogo e tentar operar no live, possuem dificuldade em saber se por exemplo: O -0.75 apresentado em live é a linha de valor para aquele momento, ou se o correto seria uma linha menos agressiva de -0.5 ou -0.25.
Neste artigo falarei um pouco e resumidamente sobre 3 linhas, e a partir destas linhas e destas ideias, acredito que possa ajudar o apostador a ter noção se está atualmente com uma aposta de valor em mãos ou não.
A primeira linha que falaremos é a linha DNB (Draw no Bet) ou AH 0, que significa que em caso de empate a sua aposta é inteiramente devolvida.
Esta é a linha de maior equilíbrio dentro de uma partida, ela significa que o jogo demonstra que as duas equipes possuem exatamente 50% de chances de vencer, ou seja neste cenário qualquer resultado é plenamente normal, o mais normal seria uma diferença por poucos gols, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1, 0-0 seriam os placares mais obvios para este jogo, é comum ver esta linha muitas vezes quando o time visitante é mais forte que o mandante, porém os bookies usam o fator casa para equilibrar e por isto deixam o mandante com cerca de 50% de vitória, igualando pelo fator campo. É uma das linhas mais perigosas pois não há de se queixar se apostar em qualquer lado e o resultado for de uma vitória magra para qualquer um, a tendência aqui é de um jogo equilibrado.
Está assistindo um jogo, que tem como DNB a linha atual, porém determinado time é melhor em grande parte do jogo ? Valor nele.
A segunda linha é a -0.5/+0,5 ou para muitos o famoso ” ML ” que é a aposta seca, quer dizer que o time escolhido no -0.5 terá que vencer o jogo por qualquer placar para que você vença 100% da sua aposta, e se otpar pelo inverso, o +0.5, significa que o time escolhido pode ganhar ou empatar por qualquer placar que você sairá vencedor.
Estes cenário aponta para um jogo onde temos aqui um favorito, ou seja diferente do DNB anterior este cenário é para apontar um dos dois times como um favorito, normalmente temos aqui neste jogo certo domínio do time que está com o -0.5, mas não um domínio total, aponta para um jogo com lance mais agressivos e perigosos do favorito mas ainda assim que sofra em determinada parte do jogo um pouco, é uma linha de favoritismo claro, e que precisa ser respeitada, e obviamente precisamos ter em conta que surpresas sempre serão surpresas, mas estatísticamente não é tão raro ver times com +0,5 marcarem gols, saírem com a vitória.
Em outras palavras, o jogo aponta para um placar de vitoria por 1 gol, ou 2 gols para os favoritos, mas que possam sim sofrer um pouco e até tomar gols.
Se você está assistindo um jogo com -0.5 e este time possui um domínio absurdo, não sofre em nada é valor, ou se está vendo o time +0.5 ter um equilibrio MUITO maior, algo como se vê no cenário DNB, então claramente o valor está no +0.5 pois não é o cenário correto.
O último cenário que falaremos um pouco, é o cenário do HCP em -1/+1, este cenário indica um jogo onde existe um favorito absoluto, cenários esse normalmente quando temos um grande time jogando em casa contra um time mediano. Neste cenário é normal o time com o -1 sofrer muito pouco ou não sofrer nada, é um cenário onde aponta para normalmente uma posse de bola muito alta do time favorito, e muitas finalizações. Raramente veremos o time com -1 sofrer gols, e se acontecer não será em grandes pressões (dentro do cenário justo proposto).
Em outras palavras podemos resumir que o -1 aponta para uma vitória clara do time favorito, bastando saber se esta será por 1 ou mais gols.
Obviamente existem diversas outras linhas, como -0.25, -0.75, -1.25, -1.5 mas não falarei de todas aqui, deixo estes estudos para o coaching, onde estudamos todas as possibilidades para aprender a fazer os fair lines.
O importante saber é que para estar em vantagem, é preciso saber ler perfeitamente o que está acontecendo dentro do jogo e comparar com as odds e linhas apresentadas, este é um dos segredos para ganhar ao longo prazo.
Costumo falar que mais importante que saber apostar, é saber ler o jogo e as odds.
Gostou do artigo ? Curta e compartilhe, nos ajude a divulgar o Apostas Profissionais.
86 Comentários
uma ótima colocação neste assunto possui grande valor
Fala George!
Obrigado pelo comentário!
Parabéns Danilo pelos seus comentários estou aprendendo bastante.
Obrigadão Marcelo!
Valeu Marcelo! Conte comigo sempre.
Danilo poderia fazer um vídeo ou artigo explicando sobre o handicap europeu, e se é uma boa trabalhar nesse mercado.
Anotado man!
Abs
Bom dia Felipe! Assista esse vídeo: https://youtu.be/tZysgZ8IBg4
Abraço!
Danilo você falou da molybet sobre desconto de 1,5% mais se o cara por uma caso fizer 3 entradas e perder todas ele ainda paga no final do dia ?
Olá Almir,
Sim, o valor é descontado em caso de Win ou Lost, apenas em caso de void não é.
Abs
Cara qual o valor do seu curso e como faco para obte-lo?
Bom dia Nadson!
Estamos em planejamento para a abertura de inscrições da turma 9 do curso Aposta de Valor. E tudo será disponibilizado nas minhas redes sociais em breve. Mas caso queira deixar os seus dados para ser notificado em primeira mão assim que tivermos maiores informações, clique no link á seguir e preencha seus dados. Abraço e tmj! http://danilopereira.net.br/aposta-de-valor/
Quero aprender mais técnica,e melhor opção em apostas.
Bom dia!
Sugiro que se inscreva no meu canal do youtube e assista as playlists do canal. Assista primeiro a lista “Inicie a sua trajetória…”. Os videos vão ajudar muito. Clique nesse link e será levado direto ao meu canal do youtube. Abraço! https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCmUdGlFr5VpikuwBQPwnfhA
muito bom artigo, não percebe muito bem a primeira linha (DNB)
Obrigado Marcio!
Obrigado Marcio! Forte abraço.
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