Adivinhar o vencedor ou saber o preço correto nas apostas?
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Adivinhar o vencedor ou saber o preço correto? O que te dá lucro nas apostas?
qua 12 dez/18

Adivinhar o vencedor ou saber o preço correto? O que te dá lucro nas apostas?


Vamos começar desmitificando esse assunto. O grande vencedor do longo prazo, apostador ou investidor não ganha acertando o resultado. Basicamente, o que você precisa saber nas apostas é se o preço do evento está certo.

É muito comum as pessoas entrarem nos sites de aposta e tentarem adivinhar o resultado. Por exemplo, eu acho que o Cruzeiro vai ganhar do Ceará no jogo de hoje. E baseado somente nisso fazem a aposta. Porém, os 3% dos ganhadores das apostas não são pessoas que simplesmente acham ou chutam um resultado. Mas, para ganhar as apostas, é necessário entender de preço. E o motivo disso é que as apostas esportivas não pagam 1 por 1 o tempo inteiro. 

Muitas pessoas acham que ser apostador é coisa fácil, justamente por acharem que as apostas são parecidas com jogos de adivinhação. Por exemplo, eu acho que o Barcelona vai ganhar do Real Madrid. E por achar isso, vou apostar no Barcelona. Para quem não conhece, é justamente isso que acontece.  

Quem entra nas apostas esportivas com o pensamento que vai apostar em qualquer odd, achando que vai ganhar sempre, eu só tenho uma coisa pra dizer pra você. Isso está errado. E além disso, fará com que você não tenha uma win rate baseada em uma sustentabilidade.  Explicando rapidamente para quem ainda não sabe, odds são as cotações atribuídas para os jogos. Com base nas informações dos times e dos jogos, as odds são calculadas por especialistas.

O que é uma aposta de valor?  

Antes de mais nada, tenha em mente que não interessa quem vai ganhar o jogo. Se você apostou com valor em uma partida é porque você analisou que o preço daquele evento é o preço justo perante ao seu preço estudado. Ou seja, “eu acho que o certo é que o over nesse jogo pague 1,90″, por exemplo.  E aí tem um over pagando 1.88 em uma casa de apostas.  Então o seu preço está quase igual ao preço do evento. Ou seja, isso não importa, justamente por não ser uma aposta de valor. Não interessa se você vai apostar em um over e o jogo vai ser 10 a 10.  Não é por isso que você fez uma boa aposta.  

Então, quando eu faço uma boa aposta?  

Uma boa aposta é quando o seu preço tem valor referente ao preço oferecido pelo mercado. É normal isso causar uma certa confusão, principalmente para quem está começando agora com as apostas. É necessário olhar para a linha justa, a precificação, métodos de mais e vem. É isso que vai te levar ao valor. Ou seja, é isso que vai te deixar lucrativo a longo prazo.  

É muito comum ver muitas pessoas que realmente entendem de futebol, mas que quebram a banca. Chegam até a irem à falência nas apostas. Pois para vencer as bancas, ganhar dos bookies não adianta você apenas conhecer de futebol. É essencial que você também conheça de preço e mercado.  

E isso você aprende estudando. Pode estudar no meu canal, no meu curso Aposta de Valor ou até mesmo em alguns conteúdos gratuitos. É isso que vai fazer com que você seja um apostador de verdade.  As casas ganham por esse motivo. Ou seja, as pessoas acham que é saber quem vai ganhar o jogo, fazer a aposta e acabou. E isso está errado.  

Enfim, pouco importa o resultado de uma partida quando eu fiz uma aposta com valor, quando as probabilidades estavam desajustadas e eu estava do lado correto desse evento.  Ou seja, tudo o que você precisa fazer é estar o lado certo de uma aposta. E precisa também ter em mente que você não é o responsável pelo resultado. Pois você não está no campo, não é responsável pelos jogadores e nem pelas coisas que acontecem durante a partida. Esse evento envolve muita coisa das quais você não é responsável. Porém, você é responsável por entrar do lado correto da aposta.  

Como escolher o lado certo da aposta?

A resposta que muitos procuram: através de métodos. É necessário estudar a partida e também saber criar uma precificação.  Por exemplo, em um jogo de Palmeiras e Vasco em que o resultado foi 1 x 0. A odd do evento estava em média de 2,90 para a vitória do Vasco. Provavelmente eu não entraria nesse evento com essa odd. Mas se estivesse me pagando 5, 6 ou 7 para uma vitória do Vasco, eu entraria na aposta. E não interessa se o Vasco fosse perder o jogo. Não me interessa o que aconteceu ali dentro. O que me interessa é que naquele momento o preço estava desajustado e eu faria essa aposta.  

E levando o exemplo para o lado do Palmeiras é a mesma coisa. Tudo bem seu eu acho que o Palmeiras vai vencer. A minha análise futebolística foi feita. Mas a pergunta que deve ser feita é: Qual o preço para o Palmeiras ganhar esse jogo? Vamos supor que o preço era 1,35. Por que eu deveria apostar em 1,35? Essa é uma aposta sem valor.  

Exemplificando um cenário de apostas

Mas vamos pensar em um cenário em que eu tenha uma odd boa, que pode ser de 1,90 ou uma odd de 2, 2,50. Ou seja, vale a pena apostar nesse caso em uma vitória do Palmeiras? Provavelmente vale sim. E aí sim, você faz a sua aposta e entra do lado certo. E não importa se o Palmeiras vai ganhar ou não. O que importa é que a longo prazo, se você fizer sempre apostas de valor e sempre entrar do lado certo da aposta, você vai sair com lucro.  

Então, se você faz uma aposta e olha o resultado desse evento, você vai entrar no imediatismo. Quando você entra do lado certo da partida, ou seja, escolhe o lado certo da aposta e faz isso várias vezes, você está caminhando para o sucesso como apostador.  Um apostador é lucrativo a longo prazo, não por ele escolher o lado que ganha e sim porque ele está fazendo uma aposta de valor por várias e várias vezes. E isso no acumulado com um volume alto de apostas feitas durante um ano, faz com que você tenha lucro. Você tem que saber que não adianta adivinhar quem vai ganhar a próxima rodada, mas sim saber entrar do lado certo e colher esse fruto lá na frente.  

Por fim,  lucro está diretamente ligado ao valor das apostas e pra ter valor você precisa saber precificar um evento. Você tem que saber se aquilo que está sendo oferecido pra você pelas casas de aposta é justo ou não.  Sem dúvida, esse é o caminho para você ter lucro lá na frente.  

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    Show Danilo… Parabéns sempre!

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    Sensacional cara, show de bola Danilao, cada vez mais vc está abrindo minha mente. Muito obrigado

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    Valeu Danilo!!! So dicas boa ✌️

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    Show ….essa aula já tou focando para o sucesso

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