MMA: Luta de Macgregor vs Piorier 3.0
E ai, galera?! Luta apertada, hein!
Onde está o valor? O +EV está em quem?
Boa pergunta.
Tem muita coisa em jogo e os tempos são outros, já escrevi sobre isso. Na verdade venho escrevendo sobre o “novo normal” há bastante tempo. Não irei focar nisso agora. Vamos partir do mais simples.
Conor quando enfrentou Poirier no 66 kg não tomou conhecimento e nocauteou no 1R. Agora, nos 70 Kg, começou bem superior, mas a potencia não era como antes, seus golpes não tinham a mesma força, o seu espírito de lutador (com fome) mudou e teve de enfrentar pela frente um leão FAMINTO, em outra divisão e buscando revanche: Poirier.
Macgregor virou um astro, hoje multimilionário; muitos atletas do UFC reputam como um atleta sem ambição por ter conquistado tudo.
Poirier é um campeão em construção, buscando seu 1 cinturão de verdade, hoje nas mãos de um brasileiro, Charles do Bronx. Em tese, Poirier é um atleta com mais vontade de vencer. Conor, para muitos, já deveria estar aposentado.
No entanto, vejo isso de maneira diferente. Nem tudo na vida é dinheiro. Existem seres superiores que quando o cerco fecha lutam pela honra e para provar que é o homem mais forte daquele lugar, seja onde for. Muhammad Ali, já bastante rico e com os primeiros estágios do Parkinson lutou até onde as suas forças permitiram. Conor, assim como Piorier, está no auge físico de sua carreira, ambos com 32 anos.
Haja lenha meus amigos!
A questão aqui não é simplesmente de vontade ou ambição. Isso não entra no “game”. Não sou psicólogo, tarólogo e nem vidente. A questão é de categoria (divisão de peso), técnico, tático: de performance.
Categoria (70kg- 66kg)
É inegável que Conor atuando nos 70 kg não é o mesmo predador que necessitava apenas tocar seus adversários sem esforço para conquistar suas vitorias. Ele continua poderoso, mas digamos com 70% a 75% de sua letalidade. Ainda é muita coisa, mas o nível da disputa equiparou. Tanto que, antes de ser nocauteado por Poirier, Conor parecia passear na luta e a impressão é de que o nocaute viria a qualquer tempo.
Não foi o que aconteceu, os seus golpes tocavam mais, machucavam, mas não finalizavam a luta. Conor perdeu poder de nocaute, visivelmente. Algo neste jogo vai ter de mudar para vencer. Conor, menos letal, terá de resistir uma luta de 5 rounds a alguém mais adaptado a categoria.
As estatísticas mostram: 86% das lutas vencidas por Macgregor são por KO ou TKO. Poirier:
48% KO/TKO
26% SUB
26% DEC
Ou seja, Poirier é um atleta mais preparado e versátil para lutas mais longas que Conor.
Piorier na categoria de cima, diferente de Conor, ganhou força, potência, achou uma divisão confortável e adequada para mostrar suas potencialidades e virtudes. O jogo mudou. No 66kg ele utilizava 75% de sua potencia, hoje ele tem 100%. A balança equilibrou.
Técnica
Técnica? Indiscutivelmente Conor é um país de diferença. Se movimenta melhor, alonga e acerta mais seus golpes, entra menos no infight, seus chutes são mais versáteis, precisos, enfim. Não dá nem pra começar a discutir. Tecnicamente, como striker, Conor é um fenômeno. Talvez só comparável a Anderson Silva.
Tático
Taticamente complica bastante. Poirier tem mais recursos, muito mais recursos. Faixa preta de BJJ e uma boa entrada de quedas. No meu modo de ver, o que matou a luta contra Macgregor foi o grappling, não foram os chutes perna direita.
Conor estava mais estático porque estava cansadaço! A queda que recebeu no 1R e a troca de pegadas na grade, quebraram o gás dele. O irlandês já respirava pela boca há um minuto do fim e não recuperou o que perdeu na entrada do 2R.
Macgregor estava vencendo a luta nos 2R’s. Ele é um atleta melhor em pé, mas também é um atleta menos letal na categoria de cima.
Performance
No primeiro confronto, Porier era um atleta muito mais fraco fisicamente. Levou um nocaute com 1 min de luta num cruzado esquisito que pegou atrás de sua cabeça. 66kg definitivamente não era sua categoria.
Na revanche, Poirier, inspirado em Khabib, atacou a defesa de quedas de Conor logo e tratou de colocar a luta para baixo desde o início. A lesão na perna foi desculpa. O caminho das pedras foi traçado no grappling e se Conor não estiver treinado contra este desgaste será nocauteado mais uma vez.
Conor pode vencer?
Conor é um fenômeno estilístico e de mobilidade como striker. Mas, como disse, tenho de fazer a leitura da luta e ver as armas que estão dispostas nos dois combates, não tenho como fazer adivinhação.
+EV
Poirier é o meu favorito: 55% (@1.82).
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