O que são as Match Odds nas Apostas Esportivas?
Você sabe o que é Match Odds? Esse termo faz referência ao famoso 1×2 ou Probabilidade. Esses três nomes são muito conhecidos nos mercados das apostas esportivas e eu quero explicar melhor pra você hoje. Resumidamente, 1 é igual ao time 1 (mandante) o x é o empate e o 2 é o time 2 (visitante).
Isso quer dizer que você tem 3 opções para apostar:
- Se você apostar no 1, significa que você está apostando para o time mandante ganhar a partida. Ou seja, não será empate e não tem metade devolvida. Seu time precisa ganhar realmente.
- Se você apostar no X significa que você apostou no empate. Nesse caso, o jogo precisa terminar em empate para você ganhar sua aposta.
- Se você apostou no visitante, o 2, só ganhará a aposta se o time visitante ganhar a partida.
Entendido até aqui? Então você já está ligado no que é Match Odds.
Vale a pena apostar em Match Odds?
A primeira coisa que você tem que ter em mente aqui é: Você é Trader ou Punter? Se você é trader, você vai trabalhar com Match Odds muito mais do que um Punter, pois é uma forma de trabalho totalmente diferente.
Eu posso te explicar melhor sobre Punter, pois essa é minha área de atuação.
Não vale a pena trabalhar com Match Odds, exceto em dois casos
- Imagine que você quer apostar em um jogo em que provavelmente a linha é de -0.5, que é o handicap asiático. Independente do time ganhar ou não, você pagará igual. Então isso aqui é a mesma coisa. Você tem na odd de 1.80 para o São Paulo ganhar o jogo. Ou seja você pode fazer o São Paulo vencer Match Odds ou você pode pegar o -0.50, pois vai dar na mesma.
- Também pode valer a pena quando você está cobrindo uma aposta no Live. Por exemplo, o seu time está ganhando (no caso o time que você tem uma aposta) no jogo São Paulo e Flamengo. O São Paulo está ganhando por 1 a 0 . E você está vendo que o São Paulo parou de jogar e não está se dedicando mais ao jogo. Mas o Flamengo continua atacando e pode ser que ele consiga empatar o jogo. De repente o Match Odds do Flamengo vai estar pagando alto nesse momento. Por exemplo, no live estará pagando uma odd de 7.80. E aí sim vale a pena você pegar um pedacinho do seu steak, apostar no Flamengo em live e cobrir as duas pontas do evento.
Eu acho que não vale a pena em alguns casos, pois a média dessas odds estará acima daquilo que eu recomendo. Eu sempre sugiro apostar em odds de 1.80 a 2.20, na média. Geralmente, na Match Odds você encontra valores muito mais altos, como 3.30 e 4,20. Além disso, você raramente terá um ajuste fiel disso, por isso esse não é o caminho para você se profissionalizar.
Qual o caminho para se profissionalizar nas apostas esportivas?
Já ouviu falar no Asian Handicap? É como se ele fosse um filho do Match Odds, é uma ramificação. É o seguinte, imagine que você quer apostar no visitante e para o visitante está pagando 4.20 para vitória, por exemplo. O Asian Handicap vai trazer essa odd por volta de 1.80. Mas por que eu apostaria em 1.80 se eu tenho a opção de 4.20?
O Asian Handicap vai te dar um handicap positivo para esse lado, então pode ser que ele dará alguma coisa como 0.75 ou +1, o que quer dizer que são duas linhas asiáticas. Ou seja, você ganhará essa aposta mesmo se terminar em empate e se o seu time perder.
Por exemplo, se o seu time perder por até um gol de diferença, essa aposta será devolvida. Então a função do Asian Handicap é derrubar essa odd mais alta para uma odd baixa. Ou seja, te deixando com menos lucro, mas ele te oferece uma segurança muito maior.
Match odds em favoritos é comum entre apostadores profissionais?
Apostar em favoritos é uma estratégia bastante comum entre os apostadores profissionais. Quando se trata de apostas em “Match Odds”, os favoritos geralmente são os mais procurados pelos apostadores experientes. Mas por que eles preferem os favoritos? E como realizam essa abordagem?
Os apostadores profissionais confiam em análises cuidadosas para identificar as equipes que possuem vantagem sobre as outras, seja em termos de qualidade, histórico de desempenho, forma atual ou outros fatores relevantes. Eles se concentram em encontrar situações em que os favoritos estão subestimados pelas casas de apostas, resultando em odds com valor atrativo.
No entanto, é importante ressaltar que esses apostadores não apostam cegamente nos favoritos sem analisar cuidadosamente as informações disponíveis. Eles levam em consideração vários fatores, como estatísticas, lesões, classificação, histórico de confrontos diretos e outras informações relevantes para avaliar se as odds oferecidas pelas casas de apostas estão subestimando as chances de vitória do favorito.
Essa abordagem é baseada na premissa de que, a longo prazo, apostar em favoritos com odds subestimadas deve resultar em lucros consistentes. No entanto, os apostadores profissionais estão cientes de que o sucesso no mundo das apostas não é garantido, e sempre há uma possibilidade de surpresa, mesmo em jogos envolvendo os favoritos mais fortes.
Além disso, é importante lembrar que as apostas esportivas envolvem gerenciar o risco e, como tal, os apostadores profissionais usam estratégias adequadas de gestão de bankroll e diversificação de apostas em diferentes eventos.
Portanto, a estratégia de apostar em favoritos em “Match Odds” é uma tática comum e bem-sucedida entre os apostadores profissionais. Eles confiam em análises cuidadosas para identificar situações de valor, mas estão cientes de que o sucesso nas apostas esportivas envolve gerenciamento de risco e uma abordagem consistente a longo prazo.
Apostas com valor esperado positivo no Match Odds é considerado uma oportunidade?
Apostas com valor esperado positivo são oportunidades que os apostadores profissionais buscam avidamente. Eles procuram discrepâncias entre as chances de vitória de uma equipe e as odds oferecidas pelas casas de apostas. Quando encontram uma aposta em que a probabilidade de uma vitória é maior do que a sugerida pelas odds, eles não hesitam em arriscar.
No entanto, é importante ressaltar que essa estratégia não é isenta de riscos. Com o futebol, por exemplo, um esporte imprevisível, até mesmo os favoritos podem não conseguir bons resultados. Os apostadores profissionais são conscientes disso e adotam uma visão de longo prazo, sabendo que o sucesso não é garantido em todas as apostas.
Uma coisa que os apostadores profissionais fazem é gerenciar o risco de forma inteligente. Eles utilizam técnicas de gestão de bankroll, apostando apenas uma porcentagem do seu capital em cada aposta. Isso garante que eles estejam protegidos contra oscilações negativas no curto prazo e possam se recuperar após uma sequência de resultados desfavoráveis.
Apostar com valor esperado positivo no mercado de “Match Odds” é uma estratégia que envolve uma análise cuidadosa e uma boa dose de conhecimento do esporte. Os apostadores profissionais dedicam tempo para estudar estatísticas, lesões, histórico de confrontos diretos e outros fatores relevantes para identificar oportunidades valiosas.
Qual a vantagem do Handicap?
O handicap nivela a agressividade de um time com o outro. Por isso, um time muito favorito vai ter um handicap agressivo e um time não tão favorito vai ter uma linha segura. Então, dentre outros motivos, muitas casas de apostas dão um limite muito baixo no Match Odds e limites altos no Asian Handicap. Inclusive, por conta dos limites, se você pretende trabalhar como investidor no futuro, não vai valer a pena usar Match Odds.
Match Odds x Casas de Apostas
Você já reparou que várias e várias casas de aposta te empurram para o mercado de Match Odds muitas vezes? Por que eles não te oferecem handicap asiático? Exatamente por isso, é um mercado muito lucrativo para as bookies porque o apostador começa a trabalhar com margens de odds muito distintas daquilo que ele tem que trabalhar para ser lucrativo no longo prazo. Dessa forma, o apostador vive em uma linha de risco, o que não é interessante para nenhum profissional.
Inscreva-se na minha lista VIP para receber conteúdos de apostas profissionais exclusivos.
Além disso, me acompanhe também no Instagram.
86 Comentários
Olá Danilo,excelente conteúdo só tenho a agradecer pelo conteúdo gratuito que está me proporcionando,já que no momento não tenho condições de pagar um curso.
Boa tarde Vinícius, eu que agradeço cara, obrigado pela confiança!!!
Fica tranquilo, quando for o momento certo e estiver preparado para o curso será super bem vindo, abraço!
gostei muito do seu site. conteúdo muito interessante
parabéns 🙂
Fala Romulo, obrigado irmão!!!
Danilo Pereira parabéns cara vc é fera, Como funciona o curso?
Valeu Sávio!
Estamos em planejamento para a abertura de inscrições da turma 9 do curso Aposta de Valor. E tudo será disponibilizado nas minhas redes sociais em breve. Mas caso queira deixar os seus dados para ser notificado em primeira mão assim que tivermos maiores informações, clique no link á seguir e preencha seus dados. Abraço e tmj! http://danilopereira.net.br/aposta-de-valor/
Olá Danilo eu quero me informar mais sobre o seu treinamento quero vir ai em Brasil vir fazer o seu curso em julho como faço ?
Pretendo informações clara de como fazer para ter o treinamento?
Boa tarde Octavio! Segue as informações sobre o curso aposta de valor:
Vídeo sobre o curso Aposta de Valor: https://youtu.be/34ZhdDqF9GI
Lista de Espera do curso Aposta de Valor: Estamos em planejamento para a abertura de inscrições da turma 10 do curso Aposta de Valor. E tudo será disponibilizado nas minhas redes sociais logo que estiver tudo definido. Mas caso queira deixar os seus dados para ser notificado em primeira mão assim que tivermos maiores informações, clique no link á seguir e preencha seus dados. Abraço e tmj! http://danilopereira.net.br/aposta-de-valor/
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