Handicap em Ligas Nacionais e Internacionais
Nessa matéria eu vou esclarecer um pouco mais sobre as apostas em times superfavoritos. Pois eu sei que muita gente tem dificuldade de fazer esse tipo de aposta. Basicamente, o que eu quero dizer com isso são as apostas em handicaps muito esticados. Por exemplo: handicaps -1.75, -2.00 ou -2.25. Ou seja, em um handicap asiático, para que sua aposta seja ganhadora (aposta green), a equipe tem que fazer pelo menos 2 gols.
Com isso, no caso do -1.75, se o time fizer dois gols, você terá meia-entrada ganha na aposta. E no caso -2.00 a aposta será void por inteiro. Então, são placares necessários para que o seu time escolhido seja uma aposta green. Assim, ele precisa fazer 3 ou mais gols. É por essa dificuldade que muitas pessoas têm medo de arriscar nesse modelo.
Handicaps em Ligas Brasileiras
Um grande erro dos apostadores é que muitos deles comparam mercados iguais para ligas diferentes. Na prática, o apostador pega os jogos do Campeonato Brasileiro e esse tipo de aposta fica muito mais difícil. Particularmente, eu não costumo trabalhar Handicaps esticados em ligas brasileiras, pois é uma liga onde não se tem muita regularidade.
Esse tipo de aposta pode até ser um pouco perigosa. Pois mesmo que os times tenham qualidade técnica diferente, muitas vezes eles não cumprem linhas tão altas. Porque o futebol brasileiro é muito debilitado tecnicamente. Ainda mais que a maioria das equipes daqui têm a péssima mania de fazer 1×0 ou 2×0 e não evoluírem além disso.
Na maioria das ligas fora do Brasil não é assim que acontece. A primeira coisa que você tem que pensar na hora de decidir uma aposta como essa é em qual liga você está atuando.
Handicap em ligas internacionais
É muito difícil um time brasileiro cumprir esse tipo de handicap, até mesmo as grandes equipes. Mas quando você analisa um liga de futebol internacional, percebe que a quantidade de handicaps altos que são batidos nessa liga são muito grandes. Portanto, quando um time que está entre os 3 primeiros lugares da tabela enfrenta um dos 3 últimos, normalmente sai goleada. Essa goleada acontece por vários motivos. O primeiro deles é que esse tipo de liga tem um destaque qualitativo em blocos. Ou seja, os que estão em último na tabela realmente são muito piores do que os times que estão em primeiro.
Mas é claro que não é porque eu estou falando isso que você vai apostar em todos os handicaps. Assim como em todos os processos das apostas esportivas, você precisa analisar qual o melhor cenário e as opções. Eu sei que esses valores de handicaps podem te assustar e podem parecer muito difíceis. Mas é possível ter bons resultados se você tiver uma boa estratégia.
Exemplo de Handicap
Para ficar mais fácil, vou dar um exemplo usando o Barcelona. A linha em uma determinada partida era Levante x Barcelona. O Barcelona estava com handicap de -1.75, pois o Levante estava jogando em casa, bem ajustado na temporada, etc. Enfim, eu fiz essa aposta pagando -1.75 e -2.00 no Live. Nesse tipo de partida, fica evidente a qualidade técnica diferenciada e também fica claro que o Barcelona tem um jeito diferente de jogar.
Aqui no Brasil, é necessário ter um pouco mais de cuidado ao fazer a decisão do handicap, pois normalmente o valor estará inverso, do lado do Underdog. A gente sabe que muitas vezes os jogos aqui se decidem com uma bola parada e as equipes que estão ganhando se retraem. Mas fora do Brasil o valor está mais para o lado do favorito.
Então era esse o assunto que eu queria esclarecer pra você, com o intuito de que você realmente possa analisar melhor essas linhas de handicap. Continuem acompanhando minhas dicas.
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69 Comentários
Muy buen articulo, normalmente las ligas sudamericanas son UNDER mientras que las europeas son generalmente OVER, los handicaps ofrecen mejor valor y combinarlos con otros tipos de apuestas genera aun mas valor.
Gracias Enrique, gran comentario!
Muito bom seus conteúdos, aprendendo muito com você muito obrigado. Eu tenho uma dúvida sobre o valor certo pra cada linha tipo, Flamengo e csa,. Flamengo na linha de dnb pagando 1,60 como que a linha de -0,25 e -0,50 deve está precificadas?
Se eu entendi bem, nesse caso, as linhas de -0,25 e -0,50 tem que pagar mais, porque seu risco vai aumentar se você apostar nessas linhas. Já no caso do CSA, +0,25 e +0,50 o inverso, por causa do menor risco, pagando menos.
Obrigado pela participação Leonardo!!
Isso aí mano!
Boa tarde Jefinho, agradeço pela participação, sobre a precificação é algo bem subjetivo, vai de cada apostador…
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