Como fazer a pós análise das apostas? E qual a importância disso?
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Como fazer a pós análise das apostas? E qual a importância disso?
qua 26 dez/18

Como fazer a pós análise das apostas? E qual a importância disso?


Você sabe a importância de fazer a pós análise das apostas? Vamos saber mais sobre isso na matéria de hoje. Recentemente, eu coloquei no meu canal no Youtube um prognóstico de uma aposta esportiva que eu fiz com um stake menor.  

Antes de mais nada, você precisa ter em mente que quando fazemos uma análise, não estamos prevendo o futuro. É necessário avaliar o que é mais previsível de acontecer dentro daquele jogo. E se aquilo que está previsto tem ou não tem valor para a aposta online. 

Sempre que eu coloco um vídeo de análise das apostas no meu canal, eu percebo que o vídeo bomba de visualização. Acredito que as visualizações vêm dos meus seguidores mais antigos, pois eles preferem esse tipo de conteúdo para estudar.  

E o objetivo dessa matéria é fazer você pensar sobre o quão importante é analisar um pós bet. Saber se a aposta desportiva foi boa ou não. Ou se tem ou não sentido. 

Como fazer a análise das apostas? 

Muita gente analisa se a aposta foi bem-feita ou malfeita por conta do resultado do jogo. Contudo, esse é um grande erro e eu vou explicar aqui o motivo. Infelizmente, eu vejo muita gente caindo nesse erro. Até mesmo pessoas que estão nesse mercado de aposta online há muito tempo. 

Algumas vezes acontece de um apostador comentar que quer apostar em um over de 2,5, por exemplo. Mas depois da aposta esportiva, ele nem assiste ao jogo pra saber se a aposta fez sentido. Então, ele percebe que o over dele não fez sentido e o jogo terminou em 1 a 0. Com isso, o apostador pensa ter feito uma aposta muito ruim. 

O contrário também acontece. Por exemplo,  uma aposta no under 0,75 HT em que a pessoa nem assistiu ao jogo e ela também pensa que a aposta foi ruim. Ou ainda pensando em exemplos positivos. Vamos pensar que a pessoa tenha apostado na bet em que o under é 0,75 HT e tenha batido. Vamos imaginar um cenário em que o jogo tenha terminado em 0 a 0 no primeiro tempo e o apostador pensa que a aposta foi muito boa. 

Porém, o apostador está falando em cima do resultado do jogo. E isso não é uma pós análise válida. Nesse caso, a bet foi analisada dentro do que aconteceu dentro da partida, porém isso é errado. Pois, quando você analisa alguma coisa simplesmente por ter acontecido ou não, você está caindo no erro do curto prazo. Ou seja, você está analisando o resultado de uma aposta de futebol ou outros esportes e não de uma sequência, achando que foi bom ou ruim por conta somente de um jogo. Você acha que foi super bem porque bateu uma odd alta, quando na verdade você apenas chutou a odd e ela bateu. 

Ou o contrário, às vezes você fica pensando que fez uma aposta online muito ruim por ter errado uma aposta simples, mas na verdade o jogo caminhou para aquilo acontecer, porém não aconteceu devido a detalhes do futebol. 

Como fazer a análise das apostas de forma correta? 

Você precisa analisar os resultados das apostas a partir do desempenho daquilo para entender o que de fato aconteceu no jogo. Certa vez eu fiz uma aposta esportiva em um jogo do Vila Nova e a minha aposta era teoricamente boa no pré-game. Porém, durante o jogo eu percebi que a minha aposta não havia sido bem-feita, porque o desempenho dos jogadores não estava de acordo com o que eu esperava naquela partida. 

Eu esperava um tipo de atuação e outra coisa aconteceu desde o primeiro minuto do jogo. Eu até tentei fazer uma cobertura, porém não teve como. Como eu falo pra vocês, às vezes o live não te permite cobrir, pois não temos olhos pra isso dentro da aposta desportiva. 

Contudo, ao final do jogo, eu ganhei a aposta. Porém eu não merecia ter ganhado essa bet, visto que aconteceu tudo ao contrário do que eu havia imaginado. Mas o jogo terminou com o green para o meu lado.  

Eu assisti ao jogo inteiro com bastante atenção, pois eu queria entender o que tinha acontecido, pois eu sabia que a minha aposta online não tinha sido boa e eu queria entender o motivo, porque eu não queria errar de novo.  

Eu percebi que o Vila Nova não estava como esperado e eu fui buscar informações para corrigir. Com isso eu entendi muitos fatores que nem dá pra explicar aqui. Se eu tivesse olhado somente o resultado eu poderia ter falado que eu fiz uma aposta desportiva maravilhosa, mas não é esse o correto.   

Enfim, se os apostadores não analisarem o porquê eles estão ganhando ou o porquê eles estão perdendo eles correm o risco de não ter nenhum ganho com isso. Quando você vir um pic ou uma tip sobre apostas, tente analisar o porquê dessa tip ter entrado ou não. 

O que fazer para entender o valor das apostas? 

É necessário que você acompanhe o jogo e depois faça a sua análise da aposta online, pois em muitos casos você pode ter um cenário em que sua aposta bateu, mas não deveria ter batido.  

Certa vez, teve um jogo do Corinthians em que o jogo foi bem morno no primeiro tempo e ele não conseguiu criar chances. Porém, o Cruzeiro ficou na defensiva, se postou atrás e teve mais chances. 

O gol com mérito do Cruzeiro saiu de um erro bizarro do Léo Santos, em que ele tentou dominar a bola na lateral, porém perdeu a bola no campo defensivo. Então, o Barcos chutou a bola de longe e ela bateu na trave, voltou e o Robinho fez o gol. 

Isso serve para entender que existem coisas impossíveis de prever na hora de fazer as apostas a aposta de futebol ou em outros esportes. Não tiveram muitas chances claras para o gol na primeira etapa. Pois o Corinthians jogou da maneira mais absurda que tinha. Eu já falei no meu canal no Youtube que o Corinthians não tem criação e é fraco ofensivamente. 

Enfim, a meu ver tinha valor e eu acho que valeria a pena. Por exemplo, o over bateu nesse jogo, mas eu não concordo que o over tinha valor.  

Dica para apostas esportivas 

Um conselho que eu deixo para os apostadores é que faz parte do profissionalismo do crescimento de um apostador analisar as suas apostas com aquilo que realmente aconteceu dentro de campo e não com os resultados somente. 

Ou seja, não adianta abrir o site do Globo Esporte, olhar aquilo que você apostou, comparar os resultados e ver de foi uma boa aposta esportiva ou não. Isso não é suficiente para quem quer ter sucesso com as apostas esportivas. 

Isso não vai te trazer lucro algum, apenas vai te enganar. E para você ter sucesso nas apostas esportivas você precisa ser honesto com você mesmo . Além disso, tenha a capacidade de analisar o seu desempenho e não somente o desempenho da sua bet. 

Inscreva-se na minha lista VIP para receber conteúdos de apostas profissionais exclusivos.

Deixe seu comentário

80 Comentários

  • mildo disse:

    Estou começando a formar minha banca e essas dicas estão sendo de muito valor para mim. Obrigado…

  • Wendell Fernandes disse:

    Show Danilo, sempre bem atento e interessado em nos passar orientações claras de como planejar tudo de forma profissional, a controlar as emoções sem confundir sorte com capacidade de análise correta das bets, e poder dessa maneira nos tornarmos bons investidores nas apostas esportivas. Obrigado.

  • Neemias disse:

    Nunca fiz isso. Mas, como já assisti alguns jogos onde eu apostei, vi que ganhei e perdi algumas vezes por muita sorte. Artigo mais uma vez bem importante professor!

  • Jorge Severino disse:

    Parabéns pelos conteúdos abordados! Na abordagem acima você foi cirúrgico, muitas vezes uma partida é resolvida meramente pelo fator sorte, então precisamos ter noção disso, caso contrário ficaremos o tempo inteiro dependendo de lances eventuais que decidam a partida, onde a análise inicial não teve nenhum valor!

  • Carlos disse:

    Muito importante essa orientação. Vou começar a analisar para entender. Obrigado Danilo.

  • jose avila disse:

    Danilo esse e-mail para mim foi top , pois já senti na pele o que você disse e várias vezes ganhei green equipa não jogar nada e ter sorte num contra ataque e marcar ou vice versa e achei pura sorte devido aos acontecimentos do jogo , muito importante se a aposta foi correta com o que se passou no jogo obrigado

  • Leandro Santos disse:

    Com certeza, acho que através dessa análise podemos também corrigir aquilo que deixamos passar em nossa análise pré jogo….Muito show o conteúdo

  • Leandro 2112 disse:

    Outro ótimo material. Estou cada vez mais preparado para a temporada 2019.

  • Sergio Ronaldo disse:

    Muito bom Danilo esse material, eu sinceramente nunca tinha feito uma pós análise, e vendo seu conteúdo vejo a importância gigantesca q tem em fazer o pós análise.
    Parabéns a vc, e muito obrigado por compartilhar esse conteúdo de suma importância para nós.

  • jose eduardo disse:

    muito bom a materia danilo,estou aprendendo a cada dia com seus videos e sua publicaçoes,valeu kra que DEUS te abençoe sempre e que vc seja esse kara que vc e sempre,parabens

  • Davi Santana disse:

    Muito bom! aprendo a fazer analise pós jogo, pois fez muita deferança quando comecei a fazer. Preparando para 2019!!!!

  • Wilson Menezes disse:

    Pow mano, que material bacana, issu ja começa mudar meu sub cociente e ser honesto comigo mesmo que estou fazendo de forma errada, obrigado pelo conteúdo..

  • Grazianni disse:

    Muito bom esse conteúdo Danilo, e importante temos conhecimento do time..

  • adriano santos disse:

    sempre assisto teus videos Danilo
    muito profissional parabens !!!!!

  • adriano disse:

    Muito bom seus vídeos. Tá min ajudando a fazer as coisas certas. .

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