5 coisas para avaliar numa luta antes de apostar
O mercado de MMA no Brasil ainda é muito recente se comparado ao futebol (cultura nacional). Quem aí, em tempos áureos já não foi cornetar o treinador de seu clube adjetivando toda a sua família?
Já fui desses torcedores chatos de Maracanã. Era chegar na arquibancada ou na geral e com cinco minutos já chegava junto do juiz questionando a falta: da –lhe palavrão! 10 minutos depois, xingava a família do técnico, já exigindo substituição. Era uma sequência de eventos particulares que muitas das vezes animavam mais que a partida.
Tenho mais histórias engraçadas e felizes de arquibancada (um dia eu conto!) em mais de vinte anos de Maracanã, que do meu time de coração. Sou sofredor, torço pelo Fluminense.
Falando sério agora, futebol e MMA é coisa para profissional experiente. Pois mexemos com valores, dinheiro de pessoas e com a renda de muitas famílias. Aposta é um investimento, não um jogo de azar. Por isso que a equipe de Tipsters do Grupo Aposta de Valor reúne os maiores especialistas da área. Pois somos profissionais do esporte: onde a proficiência, a razão e o mindset é o que verdadeiramente conta na hora de se avaliar uma partida ou uma luta. Como é no meu caso.
Analista de desempenho de atletas com dias para apostar
Sou analista de desempenho de atletas do UFC há mais de 7 anos, já trabalhei para alguns cinturões em varias categorias. Seja no masculino (Anderson Silva, José Aldo, Robert Whittaker, Rashad Evans). Seja na categoria feminina (Amanda Nunes e Joana Jerdrzejczyk).
Trabalhos recentes
Warlley Alves – Campeão do TUF Brasil, meu primeiro atleta do UFC. Estamos juntos há mais de 6 anos. Sua última luta foi em Janeiro contra o atleta da Tunísia Mounir Lazzez por nocaute em pouco mais de 2 minutos de luta. Warlley era um super azarão, sua odd era @3.32 no Pinnacle.
Adriano Moraes – conquistou o cinturão do ONE FC (7 de abril) em cima do maior peso pena da história do UFC Demétrious Johnson – vitória por nocaute, com uma joelhada de encontro, o primeiro na carreira do agora ex campeão. Demétrious é o atleta com mais defesas seguidas de cinturão da história do UFC (11 ao todo). Para se ter ideia do tamanho do favoritismo do Johnson, a odd do Adriano girava em torno de @6.00 no Pinnacle.
Mackenzie Dern – minha estreia no grupo de tipsters. UFC Vegas 23, 10 de abril. Enfrentou no último sábado, a até aquele momento a quinta do ranking do UFC, a atleta feminina Nina Ansaroff. Venceu por finalização no 1 round, levando um dos bônus da noite por performance. Mais um underdog
Primeiras 5 dicas para apostar em MMA
Ao iniciar no ramo de apostas em MMA é muito importante saber como e quando apostar, quais os detalhes que determinam o favoritismo de um atleta com odd 1.8 ou um underdog. São muitos os detalhes que fazem a diferença, não só na hora do combate, como também no momento em que se deve pegar uma boa odd. Como o MMA é um mercado novo e estamos vivendo uma situação especial de pandemia, alguns detalhes e cuidados devem ser especialmente observados.
Evento
Para apostar em MMA é bom ser especialista em um evento. Por exemplo: Muitos eventos, a medida do “cage”, o octógono é diferente, umas mais extensas e outras mais curtas.
Existem cages, como no caso do Bellator, onde o “cercado” é totalmente redondo, não tem quina. Ou seja, isso muda todo o panorama e a dinâmica da luta, seja para entrar em quedas, seja na movimentação e desgaste dos atletas. Patrício Pitbull é um dos atletas do Bellator que afirma ser este tipo de arena redonda desgasta mais que um octógono com quina.
E, ter esse entendimento de domínio do evento, conhecimento dos atletas, faz total diferença na hora de apostar. Da mesma forma, no futebol, se você entende bastante de seria A do campeonato brasileiro, não faz sentido nenhum se aventurar e arriscar seu conhecimento no campeonato inglês.
Quantas lutas no ano?
Isso vai variar muito de atleta para atleta, em média, um atleta para ser considerado em atividade sem risco, tem de fazer 3 a no máximo 4 lutas no ano, pois o camp costuma ter 12 semanas: 1 mês de preparação física (treino de fortalecimento para habituar o corpo a receber o treinamento) e 8 semanas de aço! Preparação física pesada, perda de peso, treino técnico e estratégico com adversário mapeado.
No entanto, existem atletas e atletas, pois fisiologia e lastro de treinamento difere de cada um. Uns são mais pesados e tem dificuldade de perder peso, SOFREM MUITO, e passar por muitos camps no ano para pode ser um disco. Para outros, como Kevin Holland, fazer até 7 lutas no ano não interfere em nada na sua performance e na sua saúde.
Então, na hora de apostar num atleta, fatores como: perfil fisiológico (atleta muito acima do peso em off), lastro de treino (o atleta se dedica o ano inteiro ou só no camp?). Estes dois fatores tem como acompanhar pelas redes sociais: Twitter, Facebook, Instagram.
Média de lutas por ano e o tempo em que este atleta pegou a luta, deve ser levado em consideração. Existem atletas que pegam a luta na semana (que estão em treinamento contínuo, praticamente no peso) e vencem a luta. Isso acontece muito.
Gás
Nesse sentido, é muito importante saber ao analisar um favorito se determinado atleta é de “tiro curto” ou um “maratonista”. Um atleta de tiro curto, geralmente um finalizador e um striker, tem o seu pico de performance no 1 round. Só de olhar o cartel dá para perceber pelo numero de vitorias (a grande maioria no 1R e 2R) e derrotas (boa parte delas por pontos), Conor Macgregor.
Os maratonistas costumam progredir de rendimento e alcançar o seu pico no ultimo round. Anderson Silva, no auge, era assim. O melhor round dele era sempre o ultimo. Sendo assim, é muito bom analisar esse “casamento” de estilos antes de definir a aposta.
Experiência
Antes de mais nada, o fator experiência pesa muito na hora de se analisar um favorito, não falo necessariamente o fator idade.Jon Jones tem 33 anos e é um dos atletas mais experientes de todo o UFC. Digo, no sentido de estar acostumado a fazer lutas no card principal e o main event (luta da noite com 5 rounds). Se o adversário não for um fenômeno, provavelmente, poderá sentir a pressão ao ingressar no card principal ou pegar um atleta rankeado e fazer a luta da noite pela 1 vez.
Quando pegar a melhor Odd para apostar?
Ah, depende. Quando você identifica um +EV e acha a sua aposta, tem de saber o comportamento do mercado. Uma vez que, existem odds que tem a tendência de subir ao longo da semana e outras descer. Citar dois casos, um real, aconteceu comigo na semana passada: UFC Las Vegas 23.
Quando você enxerga um favorito com 60% de chances de vitória (odd:@1.67) e na casa de apostas ele aparece com odd: @2.20.
Se essa discrepância for flagrante, muito provavelmente essa tendência será de queda, é bom apostar antes que caia.
No meu caso, costumo esperar um dia ou dois para observar a tendência e lançar a pick. Se a tendência for de subida, é bom esperar o máximo para retirar o todo potencial desta aposta. Agora, quando é o contrário, o seu + EV é de 60% (@1.67) e a odd está em 1.72.
Seja como for, eu costumo esperar até o último minuto bater 1.80. Semana passada, peguei uma do Daniel Rodriguez que começou em @1.62 (aparentemente sem valor) no início da semana e sua odd foi subindo, subindo, chegou a @1.793 na quinta e estagnou. Esperei até 10 minutos antes da luta para bater 1.804 e lançar a pick. Fomos felizes, Rodriguez dominou a luta e venceu tranqüilo Mike Perry por pontos: green.
- Gestão de banca para iniciantes nas apostas
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- Como entender o longo prazo nas apostas esportivas?
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