Jones x Aspinall
Vou antecipar, já antecipando a fala de parte dos nossos leitores:
“Lá vem ele super estimar o lutador”.
Bom, é meu papel analisar. Sou analista de desempenho, auxilio equipes de treinadores há 8 anos no UFC. É natural e espontâneo que possua essa característica.
Um desses acertos provavelmente tenha sido responsável por estar aqui hoje contribuindo e compartilhando este conhecimento com vocês. Há 8, 9 anos atrás, saia do papel meu primeiro scouting.
- O começo
Há 9 anos, como jornalista, cobria alguns atletas de MMA, em paralelo, sempre gostei de escrever crônicas: de futebol, MMA, sobre o cotidiano. Um destes, na verdade, alguns destes textos despertaram o interesse para uma atleta, a Erica Paes, que naquela época havia sido a única derrota para a Cris Cyborg e estava em sua preparação para enfrentar uma atleta, até então desconhecida: Holly Holm.
Elas iriam se enfrentar pelo Legacy em 2013. Holly Holm tinha apenas 4 lutas na carreira, sua estréia no UFC seria quase dois anos depois em fevereiro de 2015 contra Raquel Pennington no UFC 184 (olha quanto tempo!).
- Meu primeiro trabalho como scouting
Paes era uma amiga próxima, nos falávamos bastante, e em um final de semana, a caminho de uma conferência, ela me diz o seguinte:
- “amigo, eu vou enfrentar uma tal de Holly Holm. Gosto das suas análises, você escreve bem. Participa deste camp, será parte da minha equipe. Olha o que a Carina Dan me mandou”?
Foi o que me encorajou. A dica tinha 2 linhas, com uma escrita toda truncada, provavelmente escrita as pressas. Quando olhei aquilo pensei…”Posso fazer melhor”!
Sempre que me comprometo a fazer alguma coisa faço um trabalho de imersão profundo, me interno no quarto, escrevo por horas e horas a fio. É assim até hoje, como nas análises com os atletas e agora com as apostas: eu não paro. E foi desta forma que desenvolvi aquele que seria o meu primeiro trabalho.
- Primeira imersão
Catei tudo da vida da Holm, todos os vídeos da carreira: do boxe ao MMA. Tudo que tinha de brecha e ponto forte ia abrindo tópico, copiando link e colando no Word. Desta pesquisa resultaram 9 laudas de pura análise textual, sem números. Completamente diferente do que faço nos dias de hoje.
Mando para a caixa de e – mail da Erica. Sua amiga acessa o e – mail e na mesma hora diz para a Erica:
- “Se fosse você, leria o texto do Cleber. Nunca vi uma análise daquele tamanho. Está muito bom!”
- Holm antes do UFC: premonição?!
Bem, como se sabe, elas não lutaram. Erica estava com problema no joelho sugeri que adiasse a luta. Eu fui direto e reto com ela por telefone (creio que o zap nem existia):
- Erica, querem te fazer de escada. Estão preparando essa menina para tirar o título da Ronda.
Encerrei dizendo:
- Holm tem muito volume, combina muitos golpes retos e chuta bastante. O seu único golpe com poder de nocaute é o seu chute alto de esquerda.
Nem preciso lembrar a vocês que este foi o chute que mudou a carreira da Holm para sempre no maior evento do mundo.
- Outras previsões
Essa foi apenas a primeira de tantas outras. Minha última previsão foi antes de pegar o camp da Makenzie Dern, numa conversa de zap com o Camões.
Em dezembro, quando trabalhávamos no camp do Warlley, Rogério Camões me sondou para saber sobre o que achava da Makenzie, pois estavam conversando e ele me queria junto da equipe. Na mesma hora, olhei o ranking e disse:
- das top 10, a única que vejo com posição trocada é a Nina (era a top 5). Ela não merece figurar entre as 5, ta no hype da Amanda.
Coincidência ou não, uma semana depois o contrato estava sendo firmado com contra a Nina e o resultado da luta vocês todos sabem.
- Aspinall
Dito isso, porque vejo Tom Aspinal com cacife para bater Jon Jones? Por uma série de fatores, a primeira de todas: o peso da mão dos pesados é muito diferente da dos meio pesados. Jon Jones migrou de divisão numa época em que a divisão está numa crescente evolução e com atletas pesados muito talentosos, Aspinall, Gane, Miocic, Ngannou, entre outros bons prospectos.
Tom Aspinal é um atleta dos pesos pesados “leve”, bate na balança 112 kg. Este deve ser o peso que Jones irá bater nos pesados, entre 109 a 112 kg. Porém, este não será o peso, digamos, natural de Jones. Não se ganha 15 kg de massa muscular de 1 ano para o outro, impossível. Sendo assim, se prepare para ver um Jones com menos poder de K.O ainda e mais lento. Do outro lado, Aspinal é um striker que flutua no cage, como Cyril gane. Bate muito forte, tanto que não foi a 3 rounds com nenhum atleta até hoje.
- Defesa de quedas de Aspinall
Além disso, Aspinal tem, 100% de defesa de quedas pelo UFC Stats. Ok… é o Jon Jones. Mas, não nos esqueçamos que Jones não colocou para baixo Dominick Reyes nos meio pesados. Ou seja, a dificuldade para executar o wrestling será muito maior, uma vez que estará mais lento, pesado e “fraco”, e enfrentará um atleta que é natural do peso, leve, seguramente mais forte e explosivo.
Jon Jones sabe disso, pois ele é um estudioso da luta. Ele quer vencer o Ngannou, que não será tarefa fácil. E…aposentar. Certamente este será seu último ato para se pendurar as luvas como o maior atleta de todos os tempos (ele já o é) do UFC. Vencendo, fará mais uma revanche, quem sabe uma trilogia e, com alguns milhões a mais no bolso, sabiamente a-po-sen-ta-rá.
Podem me cobrar. Na verdade, continuem cobrando.
Até!
38 Comentários
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I know Nintendo Online isn’t required to get the game, but is it required to play the online modes? The servers are run by Psyonix so I would assume no, but you never know with Nintendo. I don’t have a Switch myself yet so I can’t test it out. Many versions of Rocket League also allow you to play split-screen with someone in the same room, including console versions and Rocket League on Steam. Enabling the split-screen mode is also simple. Parent review of Rocket League Rocket League is quickly growing as both a competitive and casual title, with players frantically fighting as cars to score goals on a giant soccer field. As Rocket League continues to become more popular, the game has been introduced to more platforms. Score a Goal and Win in 3 Online Matches
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