Por Que Futebol é diferente de MMA?
Parece óbvio mais não é.
Nas apostas esportivas, notamos muita similaridade e conceitos até mesmo estatísticos entre diversos esportes: futebol, vôlei, esgrima, poker, por ai vai. Sabemos que em todos os esportes o psicológico interfere e em muitos casos é determinante. Também se sabe que para ser um apostador de sucesso, temos de vencer a banca, somente um universo de 3% no mundo tem esse poder, e para isso tem-se de descobrir o +EV.
Mas o que seria este VALOR no MMA?
No futebol entende-se que, por uma questão de imprevisibilidade, sendo uma disputa entre dois times equilibrados, seja por uma questão de territorialidade, entrosamento ou poder de investimento, quando se tem um time 55% e outro 45%, se o time com menor probabilidade tiver uma odd 2.5, num investimento a longo prazo, por conta deste “lastro” de dinheiro, o resultado é lucrativo.
MMA, será que o mesmo raciocínio de investimento funciona?
Olha, difícil cravar. Pois o MMA é um esporte muito complexo e de um casamento de lutas muito difícil. Vou falar por mim. Uma luta com 52%, 53% de favoritismo, por mais que as circunstâncias, muitas das vezes, façam o azarão sair vitorioso, este resultado a longo prazo, pode não ser (de repente) tão lucrativo. Uma vez que, qualquer diferença mínima na luta faz muita diferença no resultado final de uma peleja, onde atletas são tecnicamente equivalentes. Qualquer valência a mais, pode determinar um resultado desequilibrado, em favor do favorito, me arrisco, mesmo a longo prazo. Confesso que, este é um estudo que ainda estou elaborando. Mas, os meus resultados estão me inclinado neste caminho.
45% x 55%
Uma diferença 45% x 55% no MMA é bem provável que o favorito saia vitorioso, a não ser por uma imprevisibilidade: contusão, estouro de balança, entre outros fatores exógenos, dificilmente um atleta de MMA com esta margem de erro, por mais parelha que seja a luta, perde.
Esta não é uma conta exata, haja vista que em uma luta, muitos fatores subjetivos tem de ser levados em consideração. Dar um exemplo, Conor x Poirier. Aqui temos uma luta “pau a pau”, onde da para se colocar tranquilamente Poirier na condição de 55% de favoritismo. Conor tem a vantagem do psicológico, sua técnica apurada em pé e Poirier possui a seu favor elementos como: força e um grappling de um nível superior.
Técnica x fator psicológico
Posso afirmar, pois escrevi sobre este tema duas vezes. Uma dando vitória para Poirier e a outra para o Conor. No primeiro texto, o critério foi exclusivamente técnico, o segundo psicológico.
Digo a vocês que, depois da luta, mesmo se não houvesse o acidente, o resultado não seria diferente. Vou mais longe, é possível que em 10 confrontos entre ambos, na categoria de 70kg, Poirier vença 8 e Conor 2, talvez 2.
Conservadorismo
Sei que é uma análise pretensiosa, mas no MMA creio que ser mais conservador, levando em consideração mais a análise em si, apostando sempre num favorito “entre aspas” seguro (55% a 60%), existindo Valor acima de 1.800, creio ser este um favor mais sólido de geração de lucro em apostas envolvendo atletas de MMA.
Quais seriam estes critérios de análise percentual?
Digamos que tenha feito uma gradação baseada nos resultados das minhas picks ao longo de 3 meses de trabalhos em apostas de MMA:
- 60% – não consigo ver perdendo de jeito nenhum, a não ser que uma catástrofe acontecer, como por exemplo, estourar o peso – Irene Aldana: UFC 264.
- 57% – se correr tudo normal, não entrar uma “mão” nem nada, vence. Ou, as fraquezas do oponente se encaixam com o ponto forte do seu adversário.
Tuivasa x Greeg Moore
Tuivasa mesmo sendo muito melhor tecnicamente que Moore, quase vai a Tko no 1R, chega a dobrar os joelhos, mas se recupera e com uma combinação rápida de golpes nocauteia ainda no 1R.
Du plessis x Trevin Giles
Du Plessis não é um atleta estiloso, porém, tem volume, poder de nocaute e seus pontos fortes se encaixam aos fracos de Giles: guarda baixa e dificuldade de sair de mata leão e da guilhotina. Trevis perdeu por KO no 1R. Porém, quase foi finalizado nestas mesmas brechas previstas antes do combate.
- 55% – é um atleta melhor, mais completo, mas pode perder num dia ruim.
- 53% para baixo – ao sabor do dia, pode dar qualquer coisa. Tem valor, mas não se joga independente da odd, a não ser que esteja com a ROI em positiva e num dia de muitos greens, ex.:
Condit x Griffin, Jessica Eye x Jennifer Maia, Brad Tavares x Omar; Macgregor x Poirier.
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